双碳目标下京津冀区域间电力行业水足迹研究

Research on Water Footprint of Power Industry Between Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei Regions Under Dual Carbon Goals

为探讨双碳目标下京津冀地区电力行业的生产贸易及相应水足迹是否能满足地区长期发展需求的问题,构建了一个动态多区域可计算一般平衡模型模拟减碳政策给京津冀地区电力行业生产贸易及其水足迹带来的变化,模型中设计了4种碳减排方案,以研究碳税、投资和可再生能源补贴等政策的影响。结果表明,碳税政策发电节水效果最显著;减碳政策会大幅增加电力贸易虚拟水的区域间流动;各种情景下电力行业完全水足迹变化不大(低于15%),其中北京市电力行业水足迹对减碳政策的敏感度最高。因此,双碳目标下电力行业的节水重点应着眼于贸易环节,优化贸易结构,减少区域间虚拟水流动。

The current regional water supply and power generation structure is not able to achieve sustainable development in the long term.It is worth exploring whether the production,trade and the corresponding water footprint of the power sector in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH)region can meet the long-term development needs of the region after the dual-carbon goals is proposed.Therefore,this study constructed a dynamic multiregional computable general equilibrium model to simulate the changes in the production and trade of the power sector and its water footprint in the BTH region caused by the carbon reduction policy.Four carbon reduction scenarios were designed in the model to explore the impacts of policies such as carbon tax,investment and renewable energy subsidies.The results show that the carbon tax policy has the most significant water saving effect on power generation;The carbon reduction policy significantly increases the inter-regional flow of virtual water in the power trade;The complete water footprint of the power sector under various scenarios does not change much(less than 15%),in which the water footprint of the power sector in Beijing has the highest sensitivity to the carbon reduction policy.Therefore,the focus of water conservation in the power sector under the dual-carbon target should be on the trade chain,optimizing the trade structure and reducing interregional virtual water flows.