改进时变线性汇流模型在洪水预报中的应用

Application of Improved Time-varying Linear Confluence Model in Flood Forecasting

从时变线性汇流模型的目标、变量及关系可看出模型存在参数静态、无法考虑区间径流影响等制约问题,在洪水预报应用中存在显著缺陷。为此,提出从结合混沌映射丰富模型求解多样性和加入影响算子代替区间径流两个方向对时变线性汇流模型进行改进。选用黑水河流域毛尔盖水电站多年实测径流数据,以预报过程、洪量、洪峰及峰现时间等作为评判指标,进行改进时变线性汇流模型的应用分析。结果表明,改进模型整体预报合格率提升了9.13%、确定性系数提升了0.25,拓展了时变线性汇流模型应用的可靠性和实用性。

From the objectives,variables and relations of the time-varying linear confluence model,it can be seen that the model has some constraints such as static parameters and the inability to consider the influence of interval runoff,and there are significant defects in the application of flood prediction.Therefore,the time-varying linear confluence model is improved by combining the chaotic mapping with the rich model to solve the diversity and adding the influence operator to replace the interval runoff.Using the measured runoff data of Maoergai Hydropower Station in the Heishui River basin for many years,and taking the forecast process,flood volume,flood peak and peak time as the evaluation index,the application analysis of the improved time-varying linear confluence model is carried out.The results show that the overall prediction qualification rate of the improved model is increased by 9.13%,and the certainty coefficient is increased by 0.25,which expands the reliability and practicability of the application of the time-varying linear confluence model.