GDP构成中内外循环的再测算:基于进口分解的视角

Remeasurement of Internal and External Circulation in GDP:From the Perspective of Import Decomposition

由于出口和进口相互抵消,因此使用净出口作为外循环指标来测算GDP内外循环占比必然会高估内循环,而低估外循环。文章把进口分解到消费、投资和出口中,利用省级国民经济核算数据重新测算内外循环占比,结果显示新测算的外循环比重明显高于使用净出口数据测算的占比,更为客观地呈现了内外循环占比的年度变化特征。区域异质性分析结果显示,东部地区外循环占比明显高于中西部地区,说明东部地区参与国际循环的竞争力更强。此外,还探讨了不同地区省际贸易净流出的差异,发现东部地区省际贸易净流出规模也高于中西部地区,地区间呈现供需互补特征。

Since exports and imports offset each other,using net export as an external circulation index to calculate the pro⁃portion of internal and external circulation in GDP is bound to overestimate the internal circulation and underestimate the exter⁃nal circulation.This paper decomposes the import into consumption,investment and export,and recalculates the proportion of in⁃ternal and external circulation by using the provincial national economic accounting data.The results show that the newly calcu⁃lated proportion of external circulation is significantly higher than that calculated by using the net export data,which more objec⁃tively presents the annual variation characteristics of the proportion of internal and external circulation.The results of regional heterogeneity analysis show that the proportion of external circulation in the eastern region is significantly higher than that in the central and western regions,indicating that the eastern region is more competitive in participating in the international circulation.In addition,the paper discusses the differences of inter-provincial net outflow in different regions,and finds that the scale of net outflow of trade in the east is also higher than that in the central and western regions,showing the characteristics of complementa⁃ry supply and demand between regions.