制造业双循环的测度方法及结构特征分析

Analysis on Measurement Method of Dual Circulation in Manufacturing Industry and Its Structural Characteristics

文章基于投入产出分析法,测算出供需两端参与国内国际双循环的贡献率,并基于不同技术部门、中间品和最终品结构展开分析。研究发现:我国制造业国内循环贡献率呈“U”型结构特征,国际循环贡献率呈“倒U”型结构特征,其中,国内循环贡献率以初始投入为主,其次是国内消费、国内投资;国际循环贡献率主要以出口中间品和进口中间品投入为主,其次是国外消费、国外投资。不同技术类别制造业的国内国际双循环贡献率具有异质性。国内循环贡献率最高的是中低技术制造业,其次是中高技术、中技术和高技术制造业,国际循环则相反。中低技术、中技术制造业的出口贡献率大于进口,中高技术、高技术制造业的进口贡献率大于出口。高技术制造业的最终品贡献率最高,中低技术制造业最低,中技术和中高技术制造业基本持平。

Based on the input-output analysis method,this paper calculates the contribution rate of both supply and demand sides participating in the domestic and international dual cycle,and analyzes the structure of different technical departments,intermediate products and final products.The results are as follows:The domestic cycle contribution rate of China’s manufacturing industry shows a U-shaped structure,and the international cycle contribution rate shows an inverted U-shaped structure.The domestic cycle contribution rate is mainly initial input,followed by domestic consumption and investment.The contribution rate of international circulation is mainly dominated by export intermediate goods and import intermediate goods input,followed by foreign consumption and foreign investment.The domestic and international dual cycle contribution rates of manufacturing industries of different technology categories are heterogeneous.The highest contribution rate of domestic cycle is low and medium technology manufacturing,followed by medium and high technology,medium technology and high technology manufacturing;the international cycle is the opposite.The export contribution rate of medium and low technology and medium technology manufacturing is greater than that of imports,and the import contribution rate of medium and high technology and high technology manufacturing is greater than that of exports.High-tech manufacturing has the highest contribution rate of final products;low and medium technology manufacturing has the lowest;medium technology and medium and high technology manufacturing are basically of the same contribution rate.