消费结构、产业结构升级与房价之间互动关系研究

Research on the Interactive Relationship Between the Upgrading of Consumption, Industrial Structure, and Housing Prices

消费结构、产业结构升级和房价对居民、企业和社会都起着关键作用,研究三者之间的关系具有很好的理论和现实意义。因此,基于我国31个省市自治区2005—2020年的面板数据,利用面板向量自回归(panel vector auto regression,PVAR)模型实证检验了产业结构升级、消费结构和房价之间的互动关系。结果表明:消费结构和产业结构升级之间的关系,除东部地区外,其它地区均表现为相互促进的正相关关系;房价和产业结构升级之间的关系,除西部地区外均存在反向互动关系,西部地区表现为相互抑制的负相关关系;房价和消费结构之间的关系除中部地区表现为相互促进的互动关系外,其它地区均表现为反向互动作用。故建议加强发挥消费结构与产业结构升级之间的良性互动关系,针对性地调整房价与产业结构升级之间的互动关系,谨慎把握房价与消费结构之间的复杂互动关系。

Due to the fact that the upgrading of consumption structure,industrial structure,and housing prices play a crucial role for residents,enterprises,it is of good theoretical and practical significance to study the relationship among the three factors.Therefore,on the basis of the panel data of 31 provinces,cities and autonomous regions in China from 2005 to 2020,by using the PVAR model,an empirical test has been conducted on the interaction between the upgrading of industrial structure,consumption structure and housing prices.The results indicate that except for the eastern region,the upgrading of consumption structure and industrial structure shows a positive correlation of mutual promotion with each other.There is a reverse interactive relationship between housing prices and industrial structure upgrading,with an exception of the western region which exhibits a negative correlation of mutual inhibition.The relationship between housing prices and consumption structure is characterized with a mutually reinforcing interaction in the central region,while there is a reverse interaction in other regions.Therefore,it is suggested to strengthen the positive interaction between consumption structure and industrial structure upgrading,targeted to achieve the interaction between housing prices and industrial structure upgrading,and carefully grasp the complex interaction between housing prices and consumption structure.