二十国集团有效性的评估及影响机制

Effectiveness Assessment and Impact Mechanism of the G20

二十国集团治理议题涉及经济、金融、气候等多个领域,然而不同领域的治理有效性却存在差异。基于过程有效性与结果有效性两个维度,行为改变与问题解决这两个关键指标可以作为衡量机制有效性的标准并用以验证不同议题领域的治理有效性。二十国集团的有效性主要由政治机会与集体治理能力两个核心变量决定,当两个变量同时具备时,该机制有效性较高;当只具备一个变量时,该机制部分有效;当两个变量都不具备时,该机制有效性较低。这一理论假设通过以下案例得到验证,打击恐怖主义融资不仅具备较高等级的政治机会,而且二十国集团对这一议题的集体治理能力较强,相应地其治理有效性较高;国际金融机构改革虽具备较高等级的政治机会,但二十国集团对该议题的集体治理能力受限,因而其治理只是部分有效;全球气候治理仅具有较低等级的政治机会,并且二十国集团对该议题的集体治理能力较弱,相应地其治理有效性则较低。本文有关影响二十国集团有效性重要变量因素及其作用机制的分析框架既为研究多边国际机制的有效性提供了一个新的视角,也为提高多边机制的治理有效性指明了着力的方向。

The governance issues of the G20 deal with multiple areas such as economy,finance,and climate,yet the effectiveness of governance varies across different areas.Based on the dimensions of procedural effectiveness and outcome effectiveness,behavior change and problem solving can be regarded as two key indicators that can be used as standards to measure the effectiveness of mechanisms and to verify the governance effectiveness in different issue areas.The effectiveness of the G20 is mainly determined by the two core variables of political opportunity and collective governance capacity,and when both variables are present,the mechanism playsroles at a high level;when one variable is present,the mechanism playsroles partially effective;when neither variable is present,the mechanism playsroles at a low level.This theoretical hypothesis is validated through the following cases.The issue of counter-terrorism financing not only has a relatively high level of political opportunity,but the G20 also has strong collective governance capacity on it,so its governance effectiveness is relatively high;Although the reform of the international financial institutions has a high level of political opportunity,the G20's collective governance capacity on this issue is limited,so it is only partially effective;Global climate governance only has a low level of political opportunity,and the G20's collective governance capacity on this issue is weak,so its governance effectiveness is relatively low.The analysis framework on the effectiveness impact mechanisms of the G20 provides a new perspective for studying the effectiveness of multilateral international mechanisms and also points out the direction for improving the governance effectiveness of multilateral mechanisms.