论国际政治与国内政治的非对称结构对族群冲突的影响:一种结构与认知的互动角度

Differential Evolution of Ethnic Armed Conflicts Under Dual Asymmetric Structure

在国际秩序转型与大国战略竞争加剧的背景下,非对称国际关系持续构成民族国家进行国族塑造与政权建设的外部结构性压力。由族群问题引发的国际与国内冲突日益频繁,从国际政治中的等级现象着手理解族群武装冲突是一个重要的研究路径。国际体系中非主导国与主导国所形成的国际非对称结构会导致非主导国国内非对称结构的极化、重构或紊乱,由此构成不同类型的双重非对称结构。双重非对称结构是解释不同非主导国族群武装冲突呈现差异的关键变量。菲律宾、尼日利亚和土耳其三国族群武装冲突的案例显示,双重非对称结构重塑了非主导国及主体族群原先对少数族群的负面认知并使其呈现低等化、对立化、极端化与安全泛化,进而使非主导国族群武装冲突呈现差异化演进趋势。国际非对称结构也可能会直接激化非主导国的族群武装冲突或对其冲突烈度形成控制。而少数族群内部政治结构则会对上述传导机制起到催化/缓冲、加强/抑制的作用。发展中国家的族群武装冲突将呈现怎样的发展趋势仍有待深入研究。

International and civil conflicts caused by ethnic problems increase frequently.Many subordinate states under the hierarchy face severe ethnic armed conflicts.The international asymmetric structure between the subordinate and the dominant states will lead to polarization,reconstruction or disorder of the subordinate state's domestic asymmetric structure,thus shaping different types of dual asymmetric structure.The dual asymmetric structure is the key factor in explaining the variations of ethnic armed conflict in different subordinate states.The cases on ethnic armed conflicts in the Philippines,Nigeria and Turkey show that dual asymmetric structure reshapes the misperception from state and ethnic majorities to the ethnic minorities who are imagined as low,opposing,radical and generally unsafe within the domestic asymmetric structure,leading the differential evolution of ethnic armed conflicts.The international asymmetric structure may directly intensify the ethnic armed conflict in the subordinate state or restrict its frequency and intensity,while the internal political structure of ethnic minorities would catalyze/buffer,strengthen/inhibit the above transmission mechanism.In the background of international order transformation and intensified great power strategic competition,hierarchy and asymmetric international relations continue to constitute the external structural pressure of nation-building and regime-building for nation-states.The development trend of ethnic armed conflicts in developing countries needs more research.