城市住房成本对异质技能劳动力的两期筛选效应

The Two-Period Selection Effect of Housing Costs on Heterogeneous Skilled Labor

传统劳动力流动理论无法解释中国劳动力候鸟式流动现象。本文构建了一个考虑房租和房价的异质技能劳动力两期流动模型,用于分析城市住房成本对异质技能劳动力流动的影响。理论推演发现:城市房租和房价的“剪刀差”导致了劳动力候鸟式流动,同时强化了劳动力技能特征的选择。实证分析表明:在劳动力一期流入过程中,城市房租不会阻碍劳动力流入城市,从而不产生技能筛选效应;在劳动力二期定居过程中,城市房价会降低劳动力的定居意愿,且对低技能劳动力的挤出作用更强,进而产生技能筛选效应。机制检验表明:异质技能劳动力流入城市带来的收入改善通常能够覆盖房租支出,但流入城市后低技能劳动力由于难以承担购房负担从而形成候鸟式流动。城市房价对因就业流动、跨省流动和农业户口的低技能劳动力定居意愿的负向影响较大。因此,政府部门实施“租购并举”政策,推动住房租赁市场发展,将有助于促进劳动力自由合理流动,进而有助于区域经济协调发展目标的实现。

Free and rational labor migration plays a positive role in promoting coordinated regional development,but labor migration with strong skill selection may weaken the convergence of human capital.Chinese labor migration presents unique features-for example,most labor migration is temporary,accompanied by significant skill selection,a phenomenon that existing labor migration theories cannot explain.In this paper,we analyzed the influencing factors from the perspective of housing costs.This paper extends Borjas'self-selection model of labor migration by introducing housing costs as a factor affecting real income,and extending the labor migration decision to a two-period decision:inflow and settlement.Furthermore,this paper employs theoretical deduction against the backdrop of China's real estate market's distinctive features and the housing preferences of Chinese workers.We find that the scissor difference between urban housing price and rent leads to temporary migration in China.Urban housing rent will not hinder labor inflow to the city,if it does not cover the increase in basic income.However,urban housing price will dampen the willingness of low-skilled labor to settle down in the city.Those willing to settle in the city are the high-skilled workers who can afford the housing price.Urban housing prices strengthen the skill selection process for immigrants during their settlement.Based on data from the China Migrants Dynamic Survey,we applied the labor inflow equation to analyze the impact of housing rent on labor inflow,and the labor settlement equation to analyze the impact of housing price on labor settlement.Results show that,urban housing rent does not prevent labor from flowing into the city and thus does not produce the skill selection effect during the labor inflow process.Furthermore,urban housing price reduces the willingness of labor to settle in and has a stronger crowding out effect on low-skilled labor,thus producing the skill selection effect during the labor settlement process.Mechanism analysis shows that income increase brought by heterogeneous skill labor inflowing to the city usually can cover the housing rent.However,after migrating to cities,low-skilled labor often chooses to migrate due to the high housing price.Therefore,temporary migration occurs.Urban housing price has a significant negative impact on low-skilled workers'willingness to settle down in the city due to employment migration,inter-provincial migration and rural household registration.Our study has certain policy implications.First,the government should ensure equal rights for tenants and home owners,so that renting becomes a safe and reliable option for the labor to settle down.Second,the government should provide low-skilled laborers with high-quality vocational training and employment services,to promote stable employment and increase their income.Third,the government should support the economic development of less-developed regions,alleviate their brain drain and promote coordinated interregional development.