基于AHP-模糊综合评价法的中欧班列运输通道安全风险评估

Safety Risk Assessment of China Railway Express Transport Corridor Based on AHP-Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method

中欧班列现已形成3条跨境运输大通道,跨越欧亚两个大陆,跨境运输由于途经多个国家及地区,存在多种风险隐患。为评估通道风险等级,将中欧班列运输通道风险归纳为地缘政治、环境、经济贸易、通过能力、通关、服务质量六大类,构建中欧班列运输通道风险评估指标体系,通过层次分析法(AHP)得出各指标权重,基于模糊综合评价法选取中欧班列既有通道和新通道进行安全风险实证评估,参照安全风险评价等级,得出了各通道风险等级,并提出风险防范对策。研究表明:既有通道面临的主要风险是地缘政治风险,新通道则是通过能力风险。

The China Railway Express has formed three major cross-border transport corridors,which span Europe and Asia.As cross-border transport passes through many countries and regions,there are various risks and hidden dangers.To assess the corridor risk level,the China Railway Express transport corridor risk was divided into six categories:geopolitics,environment,economy and trade,transit capacity,customs clearance and service quality.An index system for risk assessment of China Railway Express transport corridor was established.The index weights were obtained through analytic hierarchy process(AHP).Based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method,the existing corridor and new corridor of China Railway Express were selected for empirical safety risk assessment.According to the safety risk assessment levels,the risk level of each corridor was obtained and risk prevention measures were proposed.The results show that the primary risk faced by existing corridors is geopolitical risk,while the new corridor faces transit capacity risk.