中国政策利率下限约束探索

Analysis of the Lower Bound of China's Policy Rate

政策利率下限约束充当中央银行政策决策的底线之一。2008年金融危机迫使全球主要央行常规降息空间迅速消失殆尽,以挑战“零利率下限约束”为特征的负利率政策应运而生,为名义利率下限约束由零向负值推移提供了现实依据。对我国而言,从原理来看,货币持有成本的客观存在性与人为可追加性为我国政策利率下限约束为负创造了可能。从估计结果来看,我国政策利率物理下限可能位于-2%~-1.5%的深度,但同时又受经济下限约束限制。从政策建议的角度看,负政策利率下限约束仅能解央行面临常规政策空间不足时的“燃眉之急”,维护正常货币政策空间并在此基础上创新政策工具与措施、推进政策搭配与协调、优化政策制度与框架方为保持货币政策有效性的应有之义。

The lower bound of policy rates serves as a bottom line for central banks in making policy rate decisions.For major central banks,the 2008 financial crisis resulted in a rapid reduction of the scope for lowering their policy rates.It was at that point that the negative interest rate policy(NIRP)came into being,breaking the constraint of the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates and setting the stage for below-zero rates.The cost of holding money can be artificially increased,and that enables negative policy rates.The"physical lower bound"of China's policy rates is estimated to be in the range of-2%to-1.5%,constrained by the"economic lower bound".However,the negative lower bound should only address urgent needs of central banks especially when there is inadequate conventional policy space.It is generally necessary to maintain a normal monetary policy space,with innovative policy tools and measures within the conventional policy realm.