人口老龄化阻碍了企业数字化转型战略吗?——基于地级市人口普查数据的实证研究

Does an Aging Population Hinder the Digital Transformation of Enterprises?An Empirical Study Based onthe Census Data of Prefecture-level Cities

近年来中国人口出生率持续走低,步入中度老龄化阶段,研究人口老龄化带来的经济效应对解决人口红利消失带来的社会问题有重要意义。本文从企业数字化转型视角出发,探究地区人口老龄化对企业数字化转型战略的影响。研究发现,地区人口老龄化会显著降低企业数字化转型程度,这一结论在采用计划生育进行工具变量检验后依然显著。机制检验发现老龄化会通过人力资本机制、创新机制和资金供给机制阻碍企业的数字化转型战略。异质性分析表明,老龄化对企业数字化转型的负效应在小规模、非国有、东部地区企业更为显著。本文的研究有助于从微观企业数字化转型的角度理解人口老龄化的经济效应,为国家实施积极的人口老龄化应对策略和有效推进数字经济发展提供重要参考。

In recent years,China's birth rate has continued to decline,entering the stage of moderate aging.The study of the economic effects of population aging is therefore of great significance to solving social problems related to the disappearance of the population dividend.This paper explores the impact of regional population aging on enterprise digital transformation.The study found that the aging of a regional population significantly reduces the degree of digital transformation of enterprises in that region,and this conclusion is still significant after an instrumental variable test using family planning.Mechanism tests show that aging will hinder the digital transformation of enterprises through human capital,the extent of innovation,and capital supply.Heterogeneity analysis shows that the negative effect of aging on enterprise digital transformation is more significant in small and medium-sized,non-state-owned enterprises in the nation's eastern regions.The research of this paper helps in understanding the economic effects of population aging from the perspective of digital transformation among microenterprises.It also serves as an important reference for the country to implement active aging policies and effectively promote thedigital economy.