京津冀地区区县碳排放强度的动态演进、差异分解及收敛性研究

Dynamic Evolution,Differential Decomposition,and Convergence of Carbon Emission Intensity of Districts and Counties in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

京津冀地区先破后立、有序开展减排降碳对于实现碳达峰碳中和目标具有重要意义。基于2000—2019年京津冀地区199个区县碳排放强度数据,分析了京津冀地区碳排放强度的发展趋势和空间特征。研究发现:(1)京津冀地区的碳排放强度呈下降态势,其离散程度也有所下降,绝对差距表现出不同程度的收缩,其中北京、天津表现得更为明显。京津冀地区碳排放强度存在多极分化现象,其中北京和天津存在两极分化现象,河北则存在多极分化现象。(2)京津冀地区碳排放强度的总体差异呈波动上升趋势,不均衡程度有所加深。(3)京津冀地区及三省市碳排放强度均不存在σ收敛特征,但均存在绝对β收敛和条件β收敛特征。(4)碳排放强度的空间溢出效应在β收敛中显著,但省市间存在异质性,且经济发展水平、产业结构、人口密度、财政压力、政府干预对碳排放强度变化率的影响具有明显差异。基于此,建议京津冀地区要因地制宜实施减排降碳政策,强化省市区县间的空间联动,协同推进京津冀地区减排降碳政策的制定和落实。

It is of great significance to carry out carbon emission reduction in an orderly manner in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region to realize the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.Based on data on the carbon emission intensity of 199 districts and counties in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2000 to 2019,this paper analyzes the development trend and spatial characteristics of carbon emission intensity in this region.The results are as follows:(1)The carbon emission intensity in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region shows a declining trend,and its dispersion degree also decreases,with the absolute gap shrinking to different degrees,especially in Beijing and Tianjin.The carbon emission intensity in this region is multipolar,while that in Beijing and Tianjin is polarized,and that in Hebei is multipolar.(2)The overall difference in carbon emission intensity in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region shows a fluctuating upward trend,and the degree of imbalance is deepened.(3)The carbon emission intensity in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region does not haveσconvergence,but has absoluteβconvergence and conditionalβconvergence.(4)The spatial spillover effect is significant inβconvergence,but there is heterogeneity in the three provincial-level regions,and the effects of economic development level,industrial structure,population density,fiscal pressure,and government intervention on the rate of change of carbon emission intensity are obviously heterogeneous.Therefore,the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region should reduce carbon emissions according to local conditions,strengthen the spatial linkage among provincial-level regions,districts,and counties,and advance the formulation and implementation of coordinated policy measures for carbon emission reduction in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.