中央银行碳减排支持工具、政策模拟与评估——基于环境动态随机一般均衡模型分析

Central Bank Carbon Emission Reduction Support Tools,Policy Simulation and Evaluation——Based on E-DSGE Analysis

为助力“双碳”目标的实现,中国人民银行正式提出探索设立碳减排支持工具。本文将金融加速器框架与环境模型相结合,构建环境一般均衡框架,重点对中国人民银行碳减排支持工具的选择、经济效应与政策评估进行分析讨论。研究发现,绿色量化宽松政策、绿色宏观审慎政策、绿色合格抵押品政策及绿色再贷款政策等央行碳减排支持工具都降低了碳排放对经济产生的负外部性,提高社会福利,理应成为实现“双碳”目标的重要政策选项。不同央行碳减排工具的效应具有显著差异性,绿色量化宽松政策和绿色再贷款政策将央行基础货币投放与商业银行信贷投放挂钩,倾向性增加绿色企业或行业流动性,保障经济稳定的同时,也抑制非绿企业或行业碳排放,减轻碳排放对全要素生产率的负外部性。相比而言,使用绿色宏观审慎政策和绿色合格抵押品政策对商业银行资产配置进行结构性引导,对碳减排产生较大促进作用,社会福利改进显著。银行资产配置“黏性”程度是影响央行碳减排支持工具作用发挥的重要因素。

Summary:In order to support the realization of the"dual carbon"goal,the People's Bank of China(PBC)formally proposed to explore the establishment of a carbon emission reduction support tool.This paper combines the financial accelerator framework with an environmental model and constructs the environmental general equilibrium framework.It analyzes and discusses the selection of carbon emission reduction support tools,economic effects and policy evaluation of PBC.It is found that green quantitative easing policy,green macroprudential policy,green qualified collateral policy,green relending policy and other central bank carbon emission reduction support tools could mitigate the negative externality of carbon emissions on the economy and improve social welfare,which should be an important policy option to achieve the"double carbon"goal.The carbon emission reduction effects vary across different monetary policy tools employed by central banks.Specifically,the green quantitative easing policy and the green relending policy establish a crucial link between the central bank's base money supply and the commercial bank's credit supply.It's tends to increase the liquidity of green enterprises or industries,ensuring economic stability while restraining the carbon emissions from these sectors.The reduction of carbon emissions contributes to mitigating the negative externalities on total factor productivity.In contrast,green macro-prudential policies and green qualified collateral policies guide commercial banks to make structural adjustments in asset allocation,greatly promoting carbon emission reduction and significantly improving social welfare.The degree of"stickiness"of bank asset allocation is an important factor affecting the role of central bank carbon emission reduction support tools.This paper suggests,firstly,we should pay attention to the positive incentive and the reverse restriction role of financial instruments,balance the short-term and long-term,partial and overall interest relations,and explore the guidance,directness and diversity of the central bank's carbon emission reduction support tools.Secondly,we should improve the"direct access""of the central bank's carbon emission reduction sup port tools,and adopt a"list system"for re-lending.Thirdly,adhere to the"guidance""of the central bank's carbon emission reduction support tools and give play to the role of the market in allocating resources.Fourthly,promote the"diversity"of the central bank's carbon reduction support tools to better serve green development.