全球金融冲击、网络关联性特征与银行跨境资本流入

Global Financial Shocks,Network Connectivity Characteristics and Cross-Border Banking Inflows

为揭示银行跨境资本流动网络关联性特征在全球金融冲击中的作用,本文构建了2000年第一季度至2022年第一季度的银行跨境资本流动网络,分析网络关联性特征对全球金融冲击负向影响的调节作用。结果发现:网络关联性特征在全球金融冲击对各经济体银行跨境资本流入的影响中产生“倒U型”调节作用。全球金融冲击会加剧银行跨境资本流动网络的区域化特征,进而影响各经济体银行跨境资本流入水平。面对全球金融冲击,各经济体实施的资本管制政策能够起到“倒U型”调节作用,因此需要关注跨境资本流动监管政策的实施强度。各经济体在全球金融一体化进程中需要密切关注跨境资本流动网络关联性特征的变化,及时采取适度的监管措施,以防范全球金融风险的溢出效应。

Summary:After the 2008 global financial crisis,the prosperity of cross-border capital flows coexisted with the sluggish growth of real economy,and the global risk factors were increasing.The study of whether the increasingly close cross-border capital flow network could mitigate the impact of global financial shocks,or whether it would exacerbate the vulnerability of cross-border capital flow networks and amplify the impact of global financial shocks was crucial to ensuring China's financial security.This paper uses the quarterly data of total bilateral bank claims provided by the Bank for International Settlements to construct the cross-border banking flow network from 2000 to the first quarter of 2022,and analyzes the moderating effect of network correlation characteristics on global financial shocks.The results show that the network correlation feature plays an"inverted U-shaped"moderating role in the impact of global financial shocks on cross-border banking inflows in various economies.Global financial shocks will exacerbate the regionalization of banks'cross-border capital flow networks,which in turn will affect cross-border banking inflows in various economies.In the face of global financial shocks,the capital control policies implemented by various economies play an"inverted U-shaped"regulating role,and it is necessary to pay attention to the intensity of the implementation of cross-border capital flow regulatory policies.This paper provides marginal contributions to the study of the drivers of cross-border capital flows and the effectiveness of regulatory policies.In the process of global financial integration,all economies need to pay close attention to the changes in the correlation characteristics of cross-border capital flow networks,and take appropriate regulatory measures in a timely manner to prevent global financial risk spillovers.