数字产业发展如何影响流动人口收入?

How does the development of digital industries affect migrants'income?

随着数字经济的不断发展和深入渗透,数字产业已经深刻影响到中国经济结构,对当前仍主要处于中低端行业的流动人口就业和收入带来潜在冲击。为分析两者的关系,构建数字化冲击下不同岗位复杂度与不同技能劳动力的匹配模型,发现数字化冲击将引发工作复杂性密度发生变化,造成流动人口收入下降。基于2011—2018年中国流动人口动态监测调查的微观个体数据,将其与城市层面的特征数据相匹配,实证考察数字产业发展对流动人口收入水平的影响。研究发现,城市的数字产业发展对流动人口收入造成了显著的负向影响。机制分析表明,数字产业发展的冲击,不仅形成了对流动人口的劳动力替代,推动了其向灵活就业身份转换,还加剧了个体户之间的竞争。同时,异质性分析发现,该负面影响在重视科技投入、消费市场容量小的中小城市中更明显,年龄大、受教育水平不高的农民工群体受到的数字化不利冲击更大。研究结论为理解中国数字经济转型趋势下,如何应对流动人口可能面临的收入下降问题提供了理论视角和经验证据。

With the continuous development and penetration of the digital economy,the digital industry has profoundly impacted China's economic structure,and especially has a potential effect on the employment and income of migrants who are still mainly employed in low-end industries.We explore the relationship between digital industries and migrants'income by constructing a matching model of job complexity and skilled labor under the influence of a digital shock and find that the digital shock will trigger a change in the density of job complexity,resulting in a decline in the income of migrants.This study uses data from the China Migrants Dynamic Survey from 2011 to 2018 merged by urban-level characteristic variables to empirically examine how the development of digital industries affects the income level of migrants.It shows that the development of digital industries in cities has a negative impact on the income of migrants.The impact mechanism includes the labor substitution effect,employment-status conversion effect,and the competitive substitution effect of self-employment.In addition,the negative impact is more serious in small and medium-sized cities,with more investment in science and technology and with smaller consumption market capacity.Older and less educated rural migrant workers are more vulnerable.This study offers a theoretical perspective and supporting empirical evidence for addressing the income decline migrants may face,given China's current transformation to a digital economy.