全国碳排放权交易市场两周年运行情况及第二个履约周期展望

The two-year operation of the national carbon market and prospects for the second implementation period

全国碳排放权交易市场于2021年7月16日正式启动交易,至今已运行满两周年。两年来,全国碳市场运行平稳有序,挂牌价格未出现大幅波动,但交易活跃度整体不高,且存在交易集中度高、大宗协议成交量占比大等现象。全国碳市场扩容工作有序推进,但总体落后于预期;第二个履约周期配额分配总体延续首个履约周期框架,但更为科学合理;自愿减排市场有望于2023年年内重启,但所支持的项目类型及各类型所对应的方法学等关键问题仍有待明确。展望全国碳市场第二个履约周期,履约完成率将超过首个履约周期,履约驱动现象也将有所缓解,但能用于第二个履约周期配额清缴抵消的新增国家核证自愿减排量有限。建议在国家层面强化立法保障,加快重启自愿减排市场,推动各类减排政策工具和市场机制有效衔接;重点排放单位尽早制定交易策略和交易计划,重点能耗行业相关企业注重基础能力建设,自愿减排项目业主等非控排主体进行潜在项目识别。

The national carbon market has been in operation for two years since 16 July 2021.Over the past two years,the national carbon market has operated in a stable and orderly manner,with no significant fluctuations in listing prices.However,the overall trading activity is not high,and there are such phenomena as high trading concentration and a large proportion of major deals.In terms of the construction of the national carbon market,expansion work has been carried out in an orderly manner,but it has fallen behind expectations.The allocation of quotas for the second period of the national carbon market generally continues the framework of the first period but it will be more scientific and reasonable.The voluntary emission reduction(VER) market is expected to restart within the year but key issues including the types of projects supported and the corresponding methodologies for each type still need to be clarified.Looking ahead to the trend of the national carbon market,the performance rate of the second period will exceed that of the first period,the performance-driven phenomenon will also be alleviated,but there is a limited amount of new national certified VERs that can be used as offsets for quota clearing in the second period.It is suggested that the national carbon market should speed up the legislative process and restart the voluntary emission reduction market.Linkages between different emission reduction policy tools and market mechanisms should be promoted.It is also suggested that emission control enterprises should develop trading strategies and plans as soon as possible,that enterprises in key energy consumption industries should strengthen their basic capacity-building,and that owners of voluntary emission reduction projects and other non-emission control entities should identify potential projects.