“降费”能“稳就业”吗——来自养老保险法定缴费率下调政策的准自然实验

Can"Fee Reduction"Help to"Stabilize Employment"——Quasi-Natural Experiment of the Downward Adjustment Policy of the Statutory Contribution Rate for Pension Insurance

基于2012—2021年A股上市公司数据,以养老保险法定缴费率下调政策为准自然实验,采用多期双重差分方法,考察“降费”的“稳就业”效应。实证发现,养老保险法定缴费率下调1个百分点,企业实际劳动用工规模增加5.4%,潜在劳动用工规模增加9.2%。机制和渠道分析表明,养老保险法定缴费率下调政策降低了企业劳动力成本,并通过替代效应和规模效应两个渠道,促进企业增加劳动用工规模。进一步研究发现,养老保险法定缴费率下调政策主要促进企业增加低人力资本劳动力用工,劳动力平均工资下降,工资总额增加。

Based on the data of A-share listed companies from 2012 to 2021,the paper conducted a quasi-natural experiment of the downward adjustment policy of the statutory contribution rate for pension insurance,and used the multi-phase difference-in-difference method to explore the effect of"fee reduction"on""stable employment".Empirical results showed that,after the statutory contribution rate for pension insurance was reduced by 1%,enterprises'actual labor employment scale would be risen by 5.4%,and potential labor employment scale would be risen by 9.2%.The analyses of mechanism and channel showed that,the statutory contribution rate for pension insurance reduced enterprises'labor cost,and it also increased the scale of labor employment by the channels of the substitution efect and the scale effect.Further research found that,the statutory contribution rate for pension insurance mainly focused on promoting enterprises to increase the employment of low human-capital labors.The average wage decreased,but the total wage increased.