数字经济、市场潜能与乡村振兴——基于双重机器学习的因果推断

Digital Economy,Market Potential and Rural Revitalization——Causal Inference Based on Double Machine Learning

基于2009—2019年中国城市层面数据,在测算294个地级市乡村振兴发展水平的基础上,以“宽带中国”战略作为数字经济发展的代理变量,采用双重机器学习模型探究数字经济发展对乡村振兴的影响效应及内在机制。研究发现,数字经济对乡村振兴发展具有显著正向影响;就传导机制而言,数字经济通过激发地区市场潜能和扩大农村消费市场的方式促进了乡村振兴。异质性结果表明,东部地区和中心城市周边的农村地区受数字经济发展红利的正向外溢效应更多。

Based on the city-level data in China from 2009 to 2019,this paper firstly calculated the development level of rural revitalization in 294 prefecture level cities,and set the"Broadband China"strategy as the proxy variable for digital economy development.Then we used the double machine learning model to explore the effect and internal mechanism of digital economy development on rural revitalization.The results found that,digital economy had a significant positive impact on rural revitalization and development.In terms of transmission mechanism,digital economy has positively promoted rural revitalization by stimulating regional market potential and expanding rural consumer markets.Heterogeneity analysis showed that,the development dividends of digital economy had a bigger positive spillover effect on the rural regions in the eastern region and the regions around the central city.