基于Kaya公式的大连市装备制造业碳达峰研究

Research on peaking carbon dioxide emissions of equipment manufacturing industry in Dalian based on Kaya formula

2020年,中国提出碳达峰、碳中和目标。大连市作为研究对象,探究该市装备制造业的碳排放情况。通过挖掘该市装备制造业的数据,采用碳排放因子法计算碳排放量,并运用拓展的Kaya公式模型,分析该行业碳排放的驱动因素。同时,结合蒙特卡洛模拟,设定三个情景,利用建立的模型动态模拟该市装备制造业在2021~2035年碳排放曲线,并研究了峰值和达峰时间的概率分布。研究发现,在三种情景下,实现2030年的碳达峰目标存在较大的不确定性,根据大连市实际情况,为该市装备制造业提供项目规划,助力全市实现碳达峰目标。

In 2020 China proposed carbon peak and carbon neutrality targets.Dalian is chosen as the research object to explore the carbon emissions of the equipment manufacturing industry in the city.With the relative data of the city's equipment manufacturing industry,the carbon emission factor method is used to calculate carbon emissions,and the extended Kaya formula model is applied to analyze the driving factors of carbon emissions in the industry.Meanwhile,combined with Monte Carlo simulation,under three scenarios the model is established to dynamically simulate the carbon emission of the city's equipment manufacturing industry,and the carbon emission curve if obtained between 2021 and 2035.The probability distributions of the peak value and the time of reaching the peak are investigated.It is found that there is a large uncertainty in achieving the peak carbon target in 2030,and based on the actual situation in Dalian,project planning is provided for the city's equipment manufacturing industry to help the city achieve the peak carbon target.