淮河生态经济带水生态文明发展水平的时空格局演变及收敛性研究

Spatio-Temporal Pattern Evolution and Convergence of Water Ecological Civilization Development Level in Huaihe River Eco-economic Belt

水生态文明是生态文明的基础保障,开展水生态文明发展水平的空间格局及其收敛性研究有助于水生态文明的全面协同建设。以淮河生态经济带为研究对象,考虑其区域发展特色,从水安全、水生态、水环境、水节约、水监管、水文化和水设施等7个维度构建水生态文明综合评价指标体系,采用熵值法综合评价模型测度其2006~2020年间的水生态文明发展水平。运用探索性时空数据分析(ESTDA)模型框架,从时空交互视角分析水生态文明的空间格局及时空依赖动态演化。比选空间面板计量模型,剖析水生态文明发展水平的收敛性及其影响因素。研究发现:(1)研究期内淮河生态经济带水生态文明建设成效显著,尤其2013年之后发展水平成倍提升,但水生态、水文化、水监管仍是水生态文明建设主要短板。空间分布特征从2006年“高—低—中”哑铃式演化为2020年的“高—中—低”阶梯式分布,空间路径锁定与跃迁共存;(2)水生态文明发展水平存在显著的空间自相关特征。LISA时间路径相对长度东部大于西部,84%的城市LISA时间路径弯曲度水平低,在移动方向上缺乏协同整合,存在跃迁惰性,局部空间关联格局稳定性较强;(3)淮河生态经济带水生态文明发展水平不存在σ收敛,均存在显著的绝对β收敛和条件β收敛,且条件β收敛速度更快;(4)本地城市水生态文明发展的收敛性显著受经济发展水平、城镇化等因素影响,也显著受到邻域城市空间溢出效应的负向影响。

Water ecological civilization is the basic guarantee of ecological civilization.Understanding of the spatial pattern and convergence of water ecological civilization advancement level is supportive to the comprehensive and coordinated construction of water ecological civilization.Taking the Huaihe River Eco-economic Belt as the research area,a comprehensive evaluation index system consisting of seven dimensions of water security,water ecology,water environment,water conservation,water supervision,water culture and water facilities was constructed.The entropy method comprehensive evaluation model was used to evaluate the water ecological civilization development level from 2006 to 2020.The framework system of exploratory spatio-temporal data analysis(ESTDA)was introduced to analyze the spatial pattern of the development level of water ecological civilization and the dynamic evolution of spatio-temporal dependence from the perspective of spatio-temporal interaction.The spatial panel econometric model was compared and further selected to conduct an empirical analysis on the convergence of the development level of water ecological civilization.This study found that:(1)During the survey period,the construction of water ecological civilization in the study area achieved remarkable results.In particular,the development level was doubled after 2013.However,water ecology,water culture and water supervision were still in the low levels.The characteristics of spatial distribution evolved from"high low medium"dumbbell type distribution in 2006 to"high medium low"ladder type distribution in 2020,and spatial path locking and transition coexisted.(2)The development level of water ecological civilization had significant spatial autocorrelation characteristics.The relative length of the LISA time path was larger in the east than in the west.84%of the cities had low curvature of the LISA time path,lacked coordination and integration in the moving direction,and had transition inertia.The local spatial correlation pattern was relatively stable.(3)σConvergence did not exist in the construction of water ecological civilization,but there existed significant absolute valueβconvergence and conditionalβconvergence,and moreover,the conditionalβconvergence was much faster.(4)The convergence of local urban water ecological civilization development was significantly affected by economic development level,urbanization and the negative spatial spillover effect of neighboring cities as well.