基于人工智能技术的新型电力系统负荷预测研究综述

Review on Artificial Intelligence Based Load Forecasting Research for the New-type Power System

在“双碳”目标的驱动下,构建以新能源为主体的新型电力系统是促进现代电力系统低碳转型发展的重要前提与必然趋势。由于复杂易变的多元负荷是新型电力系统的重要组成部分,因而负荷预测对于新型电力系统的规划、运行、控制以及调度具有十分重大的意义。在此背景下,首先对电力系统负荷预测进行了简要概述;其次,针对新型电力系统负荷预测的新特征与新挑战,详细阐述了当前数据驱动的人工智能技术在负荷预测各个场景中的应用现状;然后,分别从数据和模型2个角度,深入分析了目前基于人工智能技术的负荷预测方法存在的问题与不足;最后,针对基于人工智能的新型电力系统负荷预测技术面临的挑战,对未来关键的技术研究方向进行了展望,并总结了相关重点研究场景,以期对“双碳”目标下的新型电力系统的发展提供具有建设性意义的参考。

Driven by the goal of‘double carbon’,constructing the new-type power system with new energy as the main part is the important premise and inevitable trend to promote the low carbon transformation and development of the modern power system.As the complex and variable multi-load is an important part of the new-type power system,load forecasting is of great significance for the planning,operation,control,and dispatching of the new-type power system.In this context,this paper firstly gives a brief overview of power system load forecasting.Secondly,in view of the new characteristics and challenges of load forecasting for the new-type power system,the status quo of applications of data driven artificial intelligence technologies in various load forecasting scenarios is described in detail.Then,from the perspectives of data and models,the problems and shortcomings of current artificial intelligence based load forecasting methods are deeply analyzed.Finally,in view of the challenges of artificial intelligence based load forecasting technologies for the new-type power system,the key technology research directions in the future are prospected,and the relevant key research scenarios are summarized,in order to provide the constructive reference for the development of the new-type power system under the goal of‘double carbon’.