中国对RCEP国家高技术产品出口增长的驱动因素研究

Research on the Driving Factors of China’s High-tech Product Export Growth to RCEP Countries

本文基于拓展的恒定市场份额模型,从总体、国别、产业三个维度逐层分析2002—2020年中国对RCEP国家高技术产品出口增长的驱动因素,结果表明:进口规模扩大是主要拉动力,而国别和产品需求结构效应呈现负面影响。出口竞争力贡献率较低,主要是因为国别和产品结构竞争力效应显著为负,但整体竞争力效应显著促进出口增长,特别是数量竞争力效应表现突出,而价格和种类竞争力效应为负值,总体和结构交互效应大幅拉动出口增长,显示出供需两端的良性互动。

Based on the extended constant market share model,this paper analyzes the driving factors of China’s hightech product export growth to RCEP countries from 2002 to 2020 from the overall,country and industry dimensions.The results show that the expansion of import scale is the main driving force,while the country and product demand structure have negative eff ects.The contribution rate of export competitiveness is relatively low,mainly because the country and product structure competitiveness effect is significantly negative,but the overall competitiveness effect significantly promotes the export growth,especially the quantitative competitiveness effect is prominent,while the price and type competitiveness eff ect are negative.The overall and structural interaction eff ects greatly promoted export growth,showing the positive interaction between supply and demand.