钢铁工业低碳化发展

Low-carbon development of steel industry

从钢铁制造流程动态运行的物理本质出发,论述了钢铁工业低碳化发展的物理本质——制造流程、供应链和服务链运行过程中耗散结构的合理构建和耗散过程的优化,认为钢铁工业低碳化发展是一个系统性命题,不仅要从具体的工序/装置来解决,更重要的是要从流程结构、流程功能、流程效率等方面来解决。进而,基于国内外钢铁行业CO_(2)排放现状的分析,构建了中国钢铁行业碳达峰与碳中和的情景分析模型,通过情景分析,量化分析了主要降碳措施的减排贡献,指出在钢铁行业实现碳达峰与碳中和的过程中,粗钢产量控制的累计减排贡献约为45%,有序、合理地利用废钢约占39%,氢还原技术约占9%,节能、“界面”技术、智能化等因素约占7%。同时,提出了中国钢铁行业低碳发展路线图的设想和碳达峰平台期、脱碳化、碳中和3个阶段的发展目标,并从资源、能源、生产制造流程脱碳化3个角度对未来钢铁行业的发展前景进行了展望,分析表明,到2060年,中国钢铁行业的铁矿石消耗量将有望减少75%,废钢的利用量将增加89%;煤炭消耗量将有望减少92%,电力消耗量的波动相对较小,氢气的用量将可能达到1400万t/a;高炉-转炉长流程占比约为15%,全废钢电炉流程约为60%,氢还原-电炉流程约为25%。最后,提出了未来钢铁行业3类流程的设想,即高炉-转炉长流程、全废钢电炉流程和氢还原-电炉流程。

Starting from the physical essence of the dynamic operation of steel manufacturing processes,the physical essence of low-carbon development in the steel industry was discussed,namely,the rational construction of the dissipation structure and the optimization of the dissipation process in the operation process of manufacturing process,supply chain and service chain.And it is believed that low-carbon development in the steel industry is a systematic proposition that needs to be addressed not only from specific procedures/devices,but also from process structures,process functions,process efficiency,etc.Furthermore,based on the analysis of CO_(2)emission status of steel industries of China and the world,a scenario analysis model of carbon peaking and carbon neutralization in China's steel industry was built.Through the scenario analysis,the contribution of major carbon reduction measures to CO_(2)emission reduction was quantitatively analyzed.It was pointed out that in the process of achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality in the steel industry,the cumulative emission reduction contribution of crude steel production control was about 45%,and the orderly and reasonable utilization of scrap accounted for about 39%,the hydrogen reduction technology accounts for about 9%,and factors such as energy conservation,"interface"technology,and smart manufacturing account for about 7%.At the same time,the idea of a low-carbon development roadmap for China′s steel industry and three stage development goals of carbon peak platform period,decarbonization,and carbon neutrality were proposed.And the future development prospects of the steel industry were looked at from the perspectives of resource decarbonization,energy decarbonization,and process decarbonization.It was shown that by 2060,the consumption of iron ore in China′s steel industry is expected to decrease by 75%,and the utilization of scrap will increase by 89%;the coal consumption is expected to decrease by 92%,and the fluctuation in electricity consumption is relatively small,while the amount of hydrogen used may reach 14 million t/a;the proportion of BF-BOF process is about 15%,EAF process is about 60%,and hydrogen reduction-EAF process is about 25%.Finally,assumption of three types of manufacturing processes in the future steel industry were proposed,namely BF-BOF process,full scrap EAF process,and hydrogen reduction-EAF process.