数字政府促进经济发展:理论机制与跨国证据

Digital Government Leads to Economic Development: Mechanism and Evidence

数字政府建设作为推进国家治理体系和治理能力现代化的重要举措,能够促进经济高质量发展吗?围绕这一重要问题,本文从理论和实证两方面考察数字政府促进经济发展的机制与证据。在理论上,本文构建了一个由政务服务市场与产品市场构成的一般均衡模型,政策制定者在预期数字政府使用率高于临界值时选择建设数字政府;当企业能够自由选择通过线下平台或数字政府获取政务服务时,会加强政府内部竞争,从而促进经济发展。其背后的具体机制为数字政府建设可以降低企业获取政务服务的合规成本,并可能影响政府提供政务服务的财政支出。在实证上,基于2002~2019年全球167个经济体的数据,本文研究发现数字政府建设能够显著提高劳均产出,促进经济高质量发展;数字政府建设能够通过减少企业获取政务服务的时间和所经历的程序数目来促进经济发展。本文研究结论表明,只有切实提高数字政府的使用率,才能充分发挥数字政府建设促进经济高质量发展的积极作用,推进国家治理体系和治理能力现代化。

The digitalization of government plays a crucial role in the modernization of the national governance system and the enhancement of governance capabilities. Recently,multiple countries have prioritized the promotion of digital transformation in government,resulting in a global phenomenon of digital government construction. China has also made significant strides in the development of digital government since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. Projections indicate that the market for government cloud in China will reach 120.39 billion yuan in 2023. Government service platforms continue to expand their range of services simultaneously,thereby improving convenience and accuracy in government service delivery.To what extent can digital government foster high-quality economic development? Identifying the impact of digital government on economic development and analyzing the underlying mechanisms is crucial for harnessing the positive role that digital government plays in promoting high-quality development.Theoretically,we construct a parsimonious general equilibrium model with the government service market and the product market to explore the mechanism through which digital government construction stimulates internal government competition and bolsters economic development. In the model,digital government and traditional channels offer homogeneous online government services,along with the option for firms to choose freely between online and offline channels for accessing government services. Thus,a certain competitive relationship arises between digital government and offline platforms in the government service market. Moreover,the decision to construct a digital government is endogenous and hinges on the potential utilization rate of the digital government. Once the utilization rate surpasses a certain threshold,the government opts to introduce digital government.To summarize the conclusions from the model,the introduction of digital government affects output per worker through two primary mechanisms. First,intra-governmental competition curtails the cost for firms to procure government services and increases firm productivity. We refer to this mechanism as the effect of compliance costs. Second,as an increasing number of firms switch from offline to online platforms for accessing government services, the construction of digital government reshapes the government's expenditure structure,thereby affecting the corporate tax rate. This mechanism is termed the effect of fiscal expenditure. The combined effects of compliance costs and fiscal expenditure ultimately increase equilibrium output per worker.Empirically,based on the data for 167 economies from 2002 to 2019,we establish a compelling positive role of digital government in economic development. The level of digital government construction is evaluated using the Online Service Index from the UN E-Government Survey,while the level of economic development is measured by output per worker from the Penn World Table 10.0. Using a model with fixed effects,we estimate that a 1% increase in digital government construction level leads to a 0.3%increase in output per worker. However,the coefficients in the model may suffer from endogeneity bias.On the one hand,our model indicates that the level of digital government development is endogenous as policymakers consider the potential utilization rate of digital government to decide whether to construct a digital government. On the other hand,economies with higher levels of economic development have more resources available for digital government construction,creating a potential reverse causality problem between digital government construction and economic development. To address this endogeneity issue,we use the average level of digital government construction in other economies within the same region as an instrument variable. Our results from the two-stage least squares regressions confirm the positive impact of digital government construction on economic development. Our conclusions remain robust after considering different samples and additional control variables.Furthermore, our empirical analysis examines the specific mechanisms through which digital government construction fosters economic development through the enhancement of intra-governmental competition. We first verify the effect of compliance cost by demonstrating that digital government construction reduces the time and procedures involved in the interactions between firms and government entities,effectively lowering the cost for firms to access government services. We also investigate the fiscal expenditure effect but find no contemporary correlation between digital government construction and fiscal expenditure shares. Nevertheless,through the combined effects of compliance costs and fiscal expenditure,the construction of digital government significantly contributes to economic development.These results remain robust under various scenarios,emphasizing the need to systematically improve the utilization rate of digital government to fully capitalize on its potential in propelling high-quality economic development and advancing national governance modernization.