基于PSR-TOPSIS法的宝鸡市大气环境生态安全评价预测及其障碍因子诊断研究

Evaluation and Prediction of Atmospheric Environmental Ecological Security and Diagnosis of Obstacle Factors in Baoji City Based on PSR-TOPSIS Method

文章基于2012-2021的时间序列数据,选用PSR模型和TOPSIS方法,构建陕西省宝鸡市大气环境生态安全评价指标体系,采用熵权法确立指标权重,通过TOPSIS法得出PSR各层以及整体综合评价的综合指数。结果表明:2012年-2021年宝鸡市大气环境呈“V”型变化,其中2014年为最低值,处于中警阶段,2021年为最高值,处于较安全阶段。通过构建灰色关联预测模型,预测2021年之后5年的宝鸡市大气环境综合指数,预测结果分别为:0.664、0.711、0.759、0.808、0.858。通过障碍因子计算,得出影响宝鸡市大气环境的综合排序前6的障碍因子为:总用电量、工业总产值、人均GDP、单位GDP能耗、SO2浓度年均值、氮氧化物排放量。为研究区环境保护及改善方向提供科学依据。

In this paper,based on the time series data of 2012-2021,PSR model and TOPSIS method were used to construct the evaluation index system of atmospheric environmental ecological security in Baoji City,Shaanxi province.Entropy weight method was used to establish the index weight,and TOPSIS method was used to obtain the comprehensive index of PSR layers and the overall comprehensive evaluation.The results show that the atmospheric environment of Baoji City presents a“V”shaped change from 2012 to 2021,among which the lowest value in 2014 is in the medium alarm stage,and the highest value in 2021 is in the relatively safe stage.By constructing the grey correlation prediction model,the atmospheric environment composite index of Baoji in the next five years after 2021 is predicted,and the predicted results are 0.664,0.711,0.759,0.808 and 0.858,respectively.Through the calculation of obstacle factors,the top 6 obstacle factors affecting the atmospheric environment in Baoji City are:total electricity consumption,total industrial output value,per capita GDP,energy consumption per unit GDP,annual mean of SO 2 concentration and nitrogen oxide emissions.To provide scientific basis for environmental protection and improvement direction in the study area.