碳管控政策下制造业空间转移与碳排放:微观机理与空间效应

Manufacturing spatial transfer and carbon emission under carbon control policy:Micro mechanism and spatial effect

本文从碳管控政策下的制造业空间转移和碳排放相互作用机理分析出发,使用融入区位要素的准成本-收益分析模型,构建了基于碳管控政策对制造业企业区位选择引力机制与离心机制,推演制造业空间转移对碳排放格局的“重塑机制”。从实证的角度,运用基于参数改进的空间临近影响模型与地理加权回归法验证了制造业空间转移、碳管控政策对碳排放格局影响的空间效应,为中国绿色低碳循环发展和生态文明建设提供政策建议和实践指导。研究发现:(1)碳管控政策对企业生产行为与区位选择的影响主要表现为离心作用,限制性碳管控政策倾向于导致制造业企业区位转移。(2)无论何种碳管控政策,企业都倾向于以碳排放上限进行生产,地区碳排放是企业生产行为和区位选择、碳管控政策选择共同作用结果。(3)从“十二五”到“十三五”时期制造业空间转移呈现明显的跳跃式扩散和就近扩散的特征,产业转出地和转入地分布集聚。(4)区域碳排放格局是政府和市场通过引力机制和离心机制作用于企业的均衡结果。低碳和高碳制造业企业在转出地和转入地之间的转移使得碳排放格局呈现相对集聚-相对分散-绝对集聚的状态。(5)“十三五”与“十二五”时期相比,碳管控呈收紧态势,政策强度和力度不断提高。离心作用下制造业企业倾向于转移到碳管控力度较低的地区。

Based on the analysis of the interaction mechanism between the spatial transfer of manufacturing industry and carbon emissions under the carbon policy,this paper uses the quasi-cost-benefit analysis model integrated with location factors to construct the gravitational mechanism and centrifugal mechanism of the location choice of manufacturing firm based on the carbon policy,and deduce the "reshaping mechanism" of the spatial transfer of manufacturing industry on the carbon emission pattern.From the empirical point of view,the spatial effect is verified by using the spatial proximity impact model based on parameter improvement and the geographical weighted regression method.The findings are as follows:1) The effect of carbon policy on production behavior and location choice of firm is mainly centrifugal,and restrictive carbon policy tends to lead to location transfer of manufacturing firm.2) No matter what kind of carbon policy,firm tend to carry out production with carbon emission ceiling,and regional carbon emission is influenced by firm's production behavior,location choice and carbon policy choice.3) From the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" to the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period,the spatial transfer of the manufacturing industry showed obvious characteristics of leap-forward diffusion and nearby diffusion,and the distribution and agglomeration of the industry transferred out of the place and into the place.4) The regional carbon emission pattern is the equilibrium result produced by the government and the market for firm through gravitational mechanisms and centrifuges.The transfer of low-carbon and high-carbon manufacturing firm makes the carbon emission pattern present a state of relative agglomeration-relative dispersion-absolute agglomeration.5) Compared with the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period,the carbon policy showed a shrinking trend,and the intensity and intensity of the policy continued to increase.Under centrifugal action,manufacturing firm tend to transfer to areas with low carbon control.