面向2035年的中国城镇化预测与发展研究

Research on the prediction and development of China's urbanization towards 2035

城镇化是我国实现社会主义现代化的必由之路。本文在总结历史、构建模型、分析数据的基础上,阐述我国城镇化的发展历程,预测2035年城镇化发展趋势,并对城镇化发展中的问题进行深入分析。研究结果表明:我国城镇化发展经历了探索期、起步期、加速期,已步入新型城镇化时期;采用Logistic模型预测,2021年后,我国城镇化年均增速将保持在1.48个百分点左右,到2035年将基本实现新型城镇化,城镇化率达到76.19%;我国城镇化建设取得了一系列成效,但仍面临着区域发展差距明显、城乡二元结构突出、土地扩张速度过快、资源约束趋紧等问题。建议进一步推进区域协调发展,优化城镇空间总体格局,以县域为基本单元推进城乡融合发展,加强人地挂钩,提高能源资源利用效率。

Urbanization is the necessary way to realize socialist modernization in China.Based on historical summary,model construction and statistical data analysis,this paper expounds the development process of China's urbanization,predicts the development trend of China's urbanization in 2035,and conducts an in-depth analysis of the problems in China's urbanization development.The research results show that:China's urbanization development has gone through the exploration period,the initial period,the acceleration period,and has officially entered the period of new-type urbanization.It is predicted by Logistic model that the average annual growth rate of urbanization will be maintained at 1.48 percent from 2021 to 2035,and China will basically realize new-type urbanization by 2035,with the urbanization rate reaching 76.19 percent.The urbanization of China has achieved a series of results,but still faces problems such as obvious regional development disparity,prominent urban-rural dual structure,excessive speed of land expansion,and tightening resource constraints.It is suggested to further promote regional coordinated development,optimize the overall pattern of urban space,promote integrated development between urban and rural areas with county as the basic unit,strengthen the linkage between people and land,and improve the efficiency of energy and resource utilization.