基于ARIMA-GM(1,1)组合模型的河南省卫生总费用及其构成预测分析

Predictive analysis of total health expenditure and its composition in Henan Province based on ARIMA-GM(1,1)combination model

[目的]对河南省2021-2027年卫生总费用及其构成进行预测,为河南省相关部门制定与改进卫生决策提供参考。[方法]利用2012-2020年河南省卫生总费用及其构成的相关资料,以ARIMA模型、GM(1,1)模型为基础,建立组合模型,对河南省2021-2027年卫生总费用及其构成进行预测。[结果]组合模型拟合效果较好,为最优模型。模型显示2021-2027年,河南省卫生总费用从4360.7亿元升至7305.8亿元,政府卫生支出占比从29.13%升至31.23%,社会、个人卫生支出占比分别从41.35%、29.52%降至40.2%、28.56%。[结论]河南省卫生总费用呈逐年增长态势。经预测,2021-2027年河南省卫生总费用将持续稳步增长。河南省仍需高度重视医疗卫生事业发展,控制卫生费用增长速度。

Objective To forecast the total health expenditure and its composition in Henan Province from 2021 to 2027,and to provide the reference for relevant departments to formulate and improve health strategies in Henan Province.Methods Based on ARIMA model and GM(1,1)model,a combined model was established to predict the total health expenditure and its composition in Henan Province during 2021-2027 by using the data of total health expenditure and its composition in Henan Province during 2012-2020.Results The combined model had good fitting effect and was the best model.The model showed that from 2021 to 2027,the total health expenditure in Henan Province increased from 436.07 billion yuan to 730.58 billion yuan;the proportion of government health expenditure increased from 29.13%to 31.23%,while the proportion of social and personal health expenditure decreased from 41.35%and 29.52%to 40.2%and 28.56%,respectively.Conclusions The total health cost of Henan Province is increasing year by year.It is predicted that the total health cost of Henan Province will continue to grow steadily from 2021 to 2027.Henan Province still needs to attach great importance to the development of medical and health,and control the growth rate of health expenditure.