中国对非洲境外直接投资与东道国经济相互影响研究

Research on the interaction between China’s overseas direct investment in Africa and the economy of the host country

在过去20年中,中国与非洲的进出口贸易及中国对非洲的境外直接投资(ODI)快速增长,2003—2022年年均增长率分别达到15.4%和27.1%。一些文献对中国在非洲ODI的驱动因素,以及中非经贸关系的不断加强对非洲国家产生的影响进行研究,得到的结论不尽相同。本文运用2003—2021年中国在非洲ODI存量最大的20个国家的数据,实证研究ODI的决定因素以及与东道国经济增长的相互关系,并对其他影响ODI的因素,如东道国的自然资源禀赋、社会治理水平,以及是否与ODI存在长期均衡关系等进行分析。研究发现,总体和长期看,东道国经济增长是中国对非洲ODI的主要驱动因素,同时社会治理水平高、与ODI存在长期均衡关系的国家能吸引到更多的ODI,自然资源禀赋对ODI的影响不显著。中国ODI对部分东道国经济有长期或短期的正向促进作用。本文还对未来中国对非洲ODI的走势进行了分析。

In the past 20 years,China’s import and export trade with Africa and China’s overseas direct investment(ODI)in Africa have grown rapidly,with average annual growth rates of 15.4%and 27.1%respectively from 2003 to 2022.Some literature has studied the driving factors of China’s ODI in Africa and the impact of the continuous strengthening of China-Africa economic and trade relations on African countries,and has reached different conclusions.Based on the data of China’s 20 countries with the largest stock of ODI in Africa from 2003 to 2021,this paper empirically studies the determinants of ODI and its correlation with the economic growth of the host country,and analyzes other factors affecting ODI,such as the natural resource endowment of the host country,the level of social governance,and whether there is a long-term equilibrium relationship with the ODI.The results show that,in the overall and long-term,the economic growth of the host country is the main driving factor of China’s ODI in Africa,while countries with high social governance level and long-term equilibrium relationship with ODI attract more ODI,and the impact of natural resource endowment on ODI is not significant.China’s ODI has a long-term or short-term positive effect on the economy of some host countries.This article also analyzes the future trend of China’s ODI in Africa.