高速公路、粮食产量与农业生产决策

Highways,GrainProduction and Agricultural Production Decision

论文基于全国农村固定观察点和中国高速公路矢量数据,使用倾向得分匹配和双重差分模型研究了高速公路的开通对农户粮食生产和农业生产决策的影响,并从劳动力流动的视角解释了其影响机制。研究发现,村庄连通到高速公路会显著增加农户种植粮食作物的面积和家庭粮食总产量。其作用机制在于,高速公路促进了外出打工机会的增加和农业技术的推广,对农业劳动投入产生了替代作用。具备外出务工动机的农户会通过引进先进的农业种植技术来节约农业的劳动力投入,所以选择扩大适合机械化操作的粮食作物种植面积。高速公路的连通有效促进了农业生产的规模化和现代化,从而对粮食安全的保障有促进作用。

Based on National Fixed Point Survey and China expressways vector data,the paper studies the impact of expressways on farm household grain yields and agricultural production decisions using propensity score matching and difference-in-differences method.The paper explains the mechanism of impact from the perspective of labor mobility and found that village-level expressways connection significantly increased the area and production of grain crops by farmers while having no effect on the yield per unit area of grain.The effect mechanism is that expressways increase opportunities for rural-urban migration and facilitate the diffusion of agricultural technology(agricultural machinery services,use of irrigation facilities,etc.),which has a substitution effect on agricultural labor inputs.Farmers with an incentive to migrate will save on agricultural labor inputs by introducing advanced farming techniques and so choose to expand the area under food crops suitable for mechanization.The expressway connection promotes the scale and modernization of agricultural production and ensures food security.