基于目标库容曲线的水库出流模拟模型

Reservoir outflow simulation model based on reservoir target capacity curve

随着水库的不断建设,水库对水循环的影响越发重要,水库出流过程已成为陆地水循环的重要一环。为了模拟水库对水循环的影响,需要构建水库出流模拟模型(Reservoir Outflow Simulation Model,ROSM)模拟水库的出流过程,然而,目前提出的ROSM仅适用于预设运行模式的水库,通用性不强。本文假设水库在年内不同季节的目标库容构成目标库容函数曲线(Target Capacity Curve,TCC),通过为不同水库设置不同的TCC提高ROSM的通用性,并从两方面考虑TCC对水库出流的影响,提出了两种模型结构:(1)水库在目标库容较高的季节倾向于蓄水,出流减少,在目标库容较低的季节则倾向于放水,出流增加;(2)水库出流应使得实际蓄水量接近目标库容。根据两种模型结构,构建了4种基于TCC的ROSM,并将其与常用的ROSM应用于长江、珠江、黄河流域的26座水库中。结果发现:(1)考虑了两种模型结构的ROSM的出流模拟、蓄水量模拟表现均为最优,说明所提出的两种模型结构合理有效;(2)考虑了TCC的ROSM模型在多年调节、年调节水库中的出流模拟精度、蓄水量模拟精度均远超其他ROSM,说明考虑TCC可以有效提高在这两类水库的模拟精度,提高了ROSM的通用性。

With the continuous construction of reservoirs,the impact of reservoirs on the water cycle is more and more significant,and the outflow process of reservoirs has become an important part of the land water cycle.In order to simulate the impact of Reservoir on water circulation,Reservoir Outflow Simulation Model(ROSM)should be constructed to simulate the outflow of reservoir.However,the current proposed ROSMs have weak generality and are only applicable to reservoirs with preset operation mode.In this paper,it is assumed that the goal reservoir capacity at various times of the year forms a Target Capacity Curve(TCC).The generality of ROSM can be improved by setting different TCCs for different reservoirs.Two model structures are proposed to consider the influence of TCC on reservoir discharge from two aspects:(1)The reservoir tends to store water and the outflow decreases in the season with higher target storage capacity,while the reservoir tends to release water and the outflow increases in the season with lower target storage capacity.(2)The outflow of the reservoir should make the actual water storage close to the target storage capacity.According to the two model structures,four kinds of TCC-based ROSM were constructed,and the common ROSM were applied to 26 reservoirs in the Yangtze River,Pearl River and Yellow River basins.The results showed that:(1)the performance of the outflow simulation and water storage simulation of the ROSM considering the two model structures was optimal,indicating that the structure of the two models was reasonable and effective;(2)Considering that the simulation accuracy of TCC ROSM in multi-year and annual regulation reservoirs is far higher than that of other ROSM,it indicates that TCC can effectively improve the simulation accuracy of these two types of reservoirs and improve the versatility of ROSM.