大气环境资源指数及其实证检验

Atmospheric Environmental Resource Index and Empirical Test

环境是现代经济活动的重要资源投入,污染程度体现了这种投入的社会成本。大气环境的异质性会对大气污染的实际结果产生显著影响,使其具备资源的基本特征。根据大气污染的经济后果,结合天气变化与大气污染的机理,给出基本假设,构建衡量大气环境资源多寡的指数模型,并利用2015—2020年中国地面气象观测数据和空气质量监测数据进行实证检验。结果表明,用简化的气温、风速两参数指数模型衡量大气环境资源量,时间序列上与空气质量指数的负相关性非常显著,2020年,北京、上海、广州3个城市的空气质量指数变化,大部分时候都是因为大气环境资源量下降导致。在大气环境资源相对匮乏的城市,如成都、西安、郑州、沈阳等市,空气质量指数对大气环境资源变化的反馈更敏感,其边际反应程度是广州、长沙和上海等市的1~2倍。2015—2019年151个城市的面板数据分析显示,大气环境资源的空间差异性也十分显著,边际上,大气环境资源对空气质量指数的影响大致与工业排放的50%相当。两参数大气环境资源指数模型可以从短期和长期两个维度解释气象气候与大气污染的内在联系,对利用气象资源防治大气污染具有一定的实践意义。

Environment is an important resource input for modern economic activities,and the extent of pollution manifests the social cost of this input.The heterogeneity of the atmospheric environment exhibits significant impact on the actual result of air pollution,making it bearing the basic characteristics of sub-resource.In this study,some basic assumptions and an index model of atmospheric environmental resources are given based on the economic consequences of air pollution combined with the mechanism of weather change and air pollution.Then,the applicability of AERI is empirically tested by employing the ground meteorological observation data and air quality monitoring data of China from 2015 to 2020.The results show that there is a significant negative correlation between atmospheric resources and air quality in time series by using the simplified index model with two parameters of temperature and wind speed.In 2020,most of the worsening of air quality in Beijing,Shanghai and Guangzhou can be attributed to the decrease of atmospheric environmental resources.In cities with relatively scarce atmospheric environmental resources,such as Chengdu,Xi’an,Zhengzhou,Shenyang and so on,the air quality index responses more sensitively to the change of atmospheric environmental resource,and its marginal response degree is 1~2 times that of Guangzhou,Changsha and Shanghai.Significant spatial difference of atmospheric environmental resources is also identified by a panel data analysis of 151 cities from 2015 and 2019.On the margin,the impact of atmospheric environmental resources on air quality index is roughly equal to 50%of industrial emissions.The relationship between meteorological condition and air pollution can be explained by AERI in both short-term and long-term dimensions.Therefore,AERI is of practical meaning for air pollution control by using meteorological resources.