云南省土地利用碳排放时空演变特征及影响因素

Spatial-temporal Evolution Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Carbon Emissions in Yunnan Province Based on Land Use Changes

[目的]研究云南省土地利用碳排放的时空变化规律及其影响因素,为云南省优化土地利用结构,实现低碳发展目标提供理论依据。[方法]基于云南省2005,2010,2015,2020年4期土地利用和化石能源消费数据,对全省碳排放效应进行测算,运用空间可视化和空间自相关研究云南省2005—2020年的碳排放时空变化规律和空间集聚特征,利用地理探测器对其影响因素进行分析。[结果](1)2005—2020年云南省建设用地增幅最大,动态变化度达7.90%。(2)区域净碳排放快速增加,年增长6.5%;碳排放空间特征为“中间高、四周低”;碳足迹在研究期内增长明显,碳生态承载力较为稳定,导致碳生态赤字日益升高。(3)人口规模、经济水平、产业结构、土地利用等促进了云南省各地州市碳排放的增加。[结论]应保护或合理增加云南省林地等碳汇地类的面积并加强其动态监测;控制建设用地面积和能源消费总量;探索碳补偿机制并发挥碳汇地区的辐射效应。

[Objective]The temporal and spatial variation of carbon emissions due to land use changes and the factors influencing carbon emissions in Yunnan Province were analyzed in order to provide a theoretical basis for optimizing land use structure and achieving the low-carbon development goal in Yunnan Province.[Methods]Carbon emissions for Yunnan Province were calculated based on land use and fossil energy consumption data in Yunnan Province in 2005,2010,2015,and 2020.Spatial visualization and spatial autocorrelation were used to study the temporal and spatial variation and spatial agglomeration characteristics of carbon emissions from^(2)005 to 2020.The influencing factors were analyzed by geographical detectors.[Results]①From^(2)005 to 2020,the area of construction land in Yunnan Province increased the most,with a dynamic change of 7.90%.②Regional net carbon emissions increased rapidly,with an annual increase of 6.5%.The spatial pattern of carbon emissions was characterized as“higher in the central region and lower in the surrounding area”.The carbon footprint increased significantly during the study period,and the carbon ecological carrying capacity was relatively stable,resulting in an increasing carbon ecological deficit.③Population size,economic level,industrial structure,land use,etc.promoted the increase in carbon emissions for cities and counties in Yunnan Province.[Conclusion]In Yunnan Province,measures should be taken in the future to protect or reasonably increase the area of carbon sinks(such as forest land)and to strengthen dynamic monitoring,control the area of construction land and total energy consumption,explore the carbon compensation mechanism,and employ the radiation effect of carbon sink areas.