湖南省县域农业碳收支时空差异及碳补偿潜力

Spatiotemporal Differences of Agricultural Carbon Income and Expenditure, and Carbon Compensation Potential of Counties in Hunan Province

[目的]基于碳排放和碳吸收双重视角来探究农业碳收支时空差异和碳补偿潜力,为湖南省农业全面绿色转型和协调发展提供理论参考。[方法]采用探索性空间数据分析、绝对β收敛、参数对比法和GIS空间分析方法,对湖南省县域农业碳收支时空差异、碳补偿率空间相关性及收敛性特征、农业碳补偿潜力区域差异进行实证分析。[结果]湖南省县域农业碳排量整体呈“以高值区为中心,向外围逐渐降低”的结构且农田土壤碳排量是其主要来源,县域农业碳排强度呈“西南高,东北低”且逐年显著降低;县域农业碳汇量整体呈“东中北部高,西南部低”的空间格局且其农业碳汇能力渐趋增强。稻谷对农业碳汇量贡献最大,农业碳吸收强度显著提升且其空间格局发生明显转变。县域农业碳补偿率表现为净碳源,存在显著的空间正相关性和收敛性且其空间集聚特征和关联特征均较为明显。县域农业碳补偿潜力在空间上呈现显著不平衡特征,中、高碳补偿县域比例达60.66%,表明湖南省县域农业碳补偿率偏低,仍具有很大碳补偿空间。[结论]应深入强化区域合作,多方共促绿色转型,充分发挥农业碳补偿率热点区辐射带动效应,维持好农业碳补偿能力较强区域优良低碳农业发展情势,重点关注中、高碳补偿潜力区域绿色农业发展趋势,缩减湖南省各县域低碳农业发展差距。

[Objective]The temporal and spatial differences of agricultural carbon budget and carbon compensation potential were analyzed based on the dual perspectives of carbon emission and carbon absorption in order to provide a theoretical reference for the comprehensive green transformation and coordinated development of agriculture in Hunan Province.[Methods]Exploratory spatial data analysis,absoluteβconvergence,parameter comparison,and GIS spatial analysis were used to empirically analyze the spatial and temporal differences of the agricultural carbon budget,spatial correlation and convergence characteristics of the carbon compensation rate,and regional differences in agricultural carbon compensation potential of counties in Hunan Province.[Results]The overall agricultural carbon emissions of counties in Hunan Province exhibited a structural form of“higher value areas in the center,and gradually decreased outwards”.Farmland soil was the main source of carbon emissions.The agricultural carbon emission intensity of counties exhibited a pattern of“higher in the southwest,lower in the northeast”and significantly decreased year by year.The overall agricultural carbon sequestration in the counties exhibited a spatial pattern of“higher in the east,central,and north regions,lower in the southwest”.Agricultural carbon sequestration capacity gradually increased across the region.Rice contributed the most to agricultural carbon sequestration,and agricultural carbon absorption intensity significantly increased and its spatial pattern significantly changed.The agricultural carbon compensation rate in the counties was a net carbon source,with significant positive spatial correlation and convergence,and the spatial clustering and correlation characteristics were obvious.The potential of agricultural carbon compensation in the counties showed a significant imbalance in space,with the proportion of medium and higher carbon compensation counties reaching 60.66%,indicating that the agricultural carbon compensation rates of counties in Hunan Province were lower,thous there was still a large potential for increasing carbon compensation.[Conclusion]Regional cooperation should be further strengthened,and green transformation should be jointly promoted by interested parties who should give full attention to the radiation driving effect of agricultural carbon compensation rate hot spots in order to maintain the development of excellent low-carbon agriculture in regions with higher agricultural carbon compensation capacity.The future work should focus on the development of green agriculture in regions with medium and high carbon compensation potential,and on narrowing the development gap of low-carbon agriculture in all Hunan Province.