基于低碳导向的南昌市土地利用模拟与优化调控研究

Research on Land Use Simulation and Optimization Regulation in Nanchang City Based on Low-carbon Orientation

[目的]对不同低碳情景下土地利用变化进行模拟,对比多情景下的碳储量和碳排放差异,为江西省南昌市的低碳发展提供相关建议。[方法]基于碳储量最大情景和碳排放最小情景对2030年土地利用结构进行优化,并运用FLUS模型模拟南昌市多情景下土地利用的空间分布特征。[结果](1)根据数量结构优化结果,碳储量最大和碳排放最小情景下土地利用碳排放均小于自然发展情景,碳储量均大于自然发展情景。综合来看,碳汇最大化情景下土地利用数量结构优化效果更优。(2)根据空间结构模拟结果,低碳情景与自然发展情景相比建设用地在空间分布上相对集中,并且碳排放减少区域和碳储量增加区域主要分布于中部和南部区域。[结论]为了早日实现南昌市碳达峰和碳中和的目标,建议优化土地利用结构,落实生态保护和耕地保护政策,控制建设用地过度扩张,加强对重点区域的调控。

[Objective]The changes in land use under different low-carbon scenarios were simulated,and the differences in carbon storage and carbon emissions under multiple scenarios were compared in order to provide relevant suggestions for the low-carbon development of Nanchang City,Jiangxi Province.[Methods]The land use structure in 2030 was optimized based on the maximum carbon storage scenario and the minimum carbon emission scenario.The FLUS model was used to simulate the spatial distribution characteristics of land use in Nanchang City under multiple scenarios.[Results]①According to the optimization results of the quantity structure,the carbon emissions of land use under the maximum carbon storage and minimum carbon emission scenarios were smaller than under the natural development scenario,and carbon storage was greater than under the natural development scenario.Overall,the effect of quantitative structure optimization of land use under the scenario of maximum carbon sink was better.②According to the spatial structure simulation results,construction land under the low-carbon scenario was relatively concentrated in spatial distribution compared with the natural development scenario.The areas of carbon emission reduction and carbon storage increase were mainly located in the central and southern regions.[Conclusion]It is suggested to optimize land use structure,implement ecological protection and cultivate land protection policies,limit excessive expansion of construction land,and strengthen the regulation of key areas,so as to achieve the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality of Nanchang City as soon as possible.