摘要
[目的]对不同低碳情景下土地利用变化进行模拟,对比多情景下的碳储量和碳排放差异,为江西省南昌市的低碳发展提供相关建议。[方法]基于碳储量最大情景和碳排放最小情景对2030年土地利用结构进行优化,并运用FLUS模型模拟南昌市多情景下土地利用的空间分布特征。[结果](1)根据数量结构优化结果,碳储量最大和碳排放最小情景下土地利用碳排放均小于自然发展情景,碳储量均大于自然发展情景。综合来看,碳汇最大化情景下土地利用数量结构优化效果更优。(2)根据空间结构模拟结果,低碳情景与自然发展情景相比建设用地在空间分布上相对集中,并且碳排放减少区域和碳储量增加区域主要分布于中部和南部区域。[结论]为了早日实现南昌市碳达峰和碳中和的目标,建议优化土地利用结构,落实生态保护和耕地保护政策,控制建设用地过度扩张,加强对重点区域的调控。
[Objective]The changes in land use under different low-carbon scenarios were simulated,and the differences in carbon storage and carbon emissions under multiple scenarios were compared in order to provide relevant suggestions for the low-carbon development of Nanchang City,Jiangxi Province.[Methods]The land use structure in 2030 was optimized based on the maximum carbon storage scenario and the minimum carbon emission scenario.The FLUS model was used to simulate the spatial distribution characteristics of land use in Nanchang City under multiple scenarios.[Results]①According to the optimization results of the quantity structure,the carbon emissions of land use under the maximum carbon storage and minimum carbon emission scenarios were smaller than under the natural development scenario,and carbon storage was greater than under the natural development scenario.Overall,the effect of quantitative structure optimization of land use under the scenario of maximum carbon sink was better.②According to the spatial structure simulation results,construction land under the low-carbon scenario was relatively concentrated in spatial distribution compared with the natural development scenario.The areas of carbon emission reduction and carbon storage increase were mainly located in the central and southern regions.[Conclusion]It is suggested to optimize land use structure,implement ecological protection and cultivate land protection policies,limit excessive expansion of construction land,and strengthen the regulation of key areas,so as to achieve the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality of Nanchang City as soon as possible.
作者
陈嘉诚
罗志军
罗媛
Chen Jiacheng;Luo Zhijun;Luo Yuan(College of Land Resources and Environment,Jiangxi Agricultural University,Nanchang,Jiangxi 330045,China)
出处
《水土保持通报》
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第5期365-373,共9页
Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation
基金
国家自然科学基金项目“基于博弈的城镇扩张与生态网络保护时空耦合与优化管控研究”(41961042)
教育部人文社会科学研究规划资助项目(19YJAZH061)
南昌市经济社会发展重大招标课题(ZDSK202206)。