黄河流域碳生态安全水平空间格局与动态演进

Spatial Pattern and Dynamic Evolution of Carbon Ecological Security Level in Yellow River Basin

[目的]分析中国重要的“能源流域”黄河流域的碳生态安全水平空间差异与动态演进,客观反映黄河流域碳生态安全现状及其演变趋势,为碳生态安全格局优化提供参考。[方法]在驱动力—压力—状态—影响—响应(DPSIR)分析框架下构建黄河流域碳生态安全评价指标体系,借助逼近于理想解的排序方法(TOPSIS)评估碳生态安全水平并运用核密度估计法分析时空演变特征。[结果](1)2012—2021年黄河流域碳汇量和碳排放量逐年增加,碳排放量增长速度快于碳汇量。从空间范围看,碳汇量具有“西高东低”的特点,而碳排放量呈“西低东高”的特征。(2)黄河流域碳生态安全水平逐年提升,由2012的0.356增长到2021年的0.639。在空间分布上,上游地区碳生态安全水平高于中、下游地区,呈现出“上游领先,中游追赶,下游超越”的特征。此外,碳生态安全等级均趋于良好。(3)基于核密度估计结果,黄河流域区域间碳安全水平差异逐渐缩小,且上游区域内碳生态安全水平差异性下降快于中、下游地区。[结论]基于黄河流域碳生态安全现状,建议上游地区继续增强碳汇能力,中、下游地区发展附加值高的技术密集型和清洁能源产业,推动GDP绿色增长。此外,应建立碳生态补偿机制,协调解决跨区域碳生态安全问题,提升全流域碳生态安全水平。

[Objective]The spatial differences and dynamic evolution of carbon ecological security level were analyzed to optimize the overall plan of carbon ecological security in the Yellow River basin(an important“energy basin”in China)in order to objectively reflect the current status and evolution trend of carbon ecological security,and to provide a reference for optimizing the carbon ecological security pattern.[Methods]An evaluation index system for carbon ecological security in the Yellow River basin was constructed under the framework of driving-pressure-state-impact-response(DPSIR)analysis.The technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution(TOPSIS)model was used to evaluate the level of carbon ecological security,and the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics were analyzed by the kernel density estimation method.[Results]①Carbon sinks and carbon emissions increased from^(2)012 to 2021 in the Yellow River basin,and the growth rate of carbon emissions was faster than that of carbon sinks.Carbon sinks were spatially characterized as“higher in the west and lower in the east”,while carbon emissions were“lower in the west and higher in the east”.②The carbon ecological security level in the Yellow River basin increased over time,from 0.356 in 2012 to 0.639 in 2021.In terms of spatial distribution,the carbon ecological security level in the upstream region was higher than in the middle and downstream regions,and was characterized as“upstream leading,midstream catching up,and downstream surpassing”.In addition,the level of carbon ecological security tended to be good.③Based on the kernel density estimation results,the differences in carbon security levels among different regions in the Yellow River basin were gradually narrowing,and were decreasing in the upstream region faster than in the middle and downstream regions.[Conclusion]Based on the current status of carbon ecological security in the Yellow River basin,carbon sink capacity in the upstream region is expected to increase over time,while clean energy industries and technology-intensive industries with high added value should be developed to promote green GDP growth in the middle and downstream regions.In addition,a carbon ecological compensation mechanism should be established to coordinate and resolve cross-regional security issues,and to improve the carbon ecological security level of the entire basin.