基于非线性模糊层次分析法的盾构施工风险评价研究

Shield Tunneling Risk Assessment Based on Nonlinear Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Method

为解决突出影响因素对盾构施工风险评价结果造成影响的问题,构建基于组合赋权-非线性FAHP的盾构施工风险评价模型。基于工作分解结构法和风险分解结构法依次对盾构施工过程和风险来源分解,进而将二者结合构建盾构施工风险评价指标体系。通过乘法集成法将主、客观权重结合计算得到组合权重;结合专家打分法得到隶属度向量构造模糊关系矩阵;引入非线性算子综合计算分析组合权重和模糊关系矩阵;根据最大隶属度原则,确定盾构施工的最终风险等级。将构建的新模型应用到贵阳市轨道交通3号线1期工程桐木岭站—桃花寨站盾构施工进行风险实例分析,得出风险评价等级为“中度风险”,与现场实际得出的风险等级相符合,讨论了新模型与传统模糊层次分析法的区别,进一步验证了新模型的科学性、可靠性。

To explore the influence of primary influencing factors on the results of shield-tunneling risk assessment,a risk-evaluation model is established based on a combined assignment-nonlinear fuzzy analytic hierarchy process(FAHP).The shield-tunneling process and risk sources are then decomposed using work-and risk-decomposition structure methods,respectively,and the two are combined to construct a shield-tunneling risk-assessment index system.A multiplicative integration method is used to combine the subjective and objective weights,and a fuzzy relationship matrix is constructed by combining the subordination vector obtained from the expert scoring method.The obtained combined weights and fuzzy relationship matrix are then analyzed by introducing a nonlinear operator.Next,the final risk level of shield tunneling is determined according to the principle of the maximum degree of subordination.The proposed model is applied to the shield tunneling of Phase 1 of the Guiyang Railway Transit Line 3 Project between the Tongmuling and Taohuazhai stations,and the risk-assessment results show that the project displays a medium risk level,which is consistent with the risk level in the field.The proposed model is compared with the conventional FAHP method,verifying the scientificity and reliability of the new model.