基于需求量预测和GIS的装配式PC构件厂选址优化方法

Optimal site selection method for prefabricated PC components plants based on demand forecasting and GIS

装配式建筑作为建筑工业化和信息化深度融合的产物,近年来发展势头迅猛。为满足日益增长的装配式混凝土(PC)构件的市场需求,需要科学布局PC构件厂使其形成规模化效应,为此提出一种PC构件厂的选址优化方法。首先,基于市场供求理论,通过灰色预测模型和二次指数平滑法构建PC构件需求量综合预测模型,以江西省为例,对未来6 a构件需求量进行预测,避免造成PC构件产能过剩,预测结果显示江西省未来3 a内对PC构件的需求量将会急剧上升,亟需增设新的PC构件厂。其次,调研现阶段PC构件厂布局等情况,并利用Python获取城市建设用地、交通网络、水网、学校、医院、旅游景点、政府机关、高密度居民区等地理信息数据,在PC构件厂选址原则的约束下,通过地理信息系统(GIS)平台对所获取的空间信息数据等进行叠置分析和擦除分析,得到初步选址点。最后,建立最优运输成本模型,基于模型假设和约束条件进行求解,确定PC构件厂的选址位置。结果表明:采用选址优化模型,能够将624个初步选址点优化为80个最佳选址点,验证了选址优化模型的有效性,形成了PC构件厂的优化布局方案。研究结果可为PC构件厂选址提供一定的参考,有助于装配式建筑产业的进一步发展。

As a product of deep integration of construction industrialization and information,prefabricated building has been developing rapidly over recent years.In order to meet the growing market demand for prefabricated concrete(PC)components,it is necessary to scientifically plan the layout of PC component factories to achieve economies of scale.To this end,a location optimization method for PC component factories was proposed.Based primarily on the theory of market supply and demand,the grey prediction model and double exponential smoothing method were used to construct a comprehensive prediction model for the demand of PC components,which can predict the demand of PC components in Jiangxi Province over the next six years to avoid PC component manufacturers’overcapacity.The results indicate that the demand for PC components in Jiangxi Province will rise inexorably within the next six years and new PC component factories are urgently needed.Furthermore,the current layout of PC component factories is investigated.The Python technology is used to obtain geographic information data,such as urban construction land,transportation networks,water networks,schools,hospitals,tourist attractions,government agencies,and high-density residential areas,etc.Under the constraints of the site selection principles for PC component factories,the Geographic Information System(GIS)platform is used for performing overlay analysis and erase analysis on the acquired spatial information data obtaining preliminary site selection points.The optimal transportation cost model is established,and determine the site selection location of the final PC component factories.The results indicate that the optimization model can optimize 624 preliminary site points into 80 best site selection points,verifying the effectiveness of the location optimization model in forming an optimized layout plan for PC component factories.The research results could provide a certain reference for the site selection of PC factories,and contribute to the further development of the prefabricated construction industry.