社会-生态视角下乡村聚落系统脆弱性评价——以蒙洼行蓄洪区为例

Vulnerability assessment of rural settlement systems from a socio-ecological perspective:the case of Mengwa floodplain

从社会生态视角对乡村聚落系统的脆弱性进行评估,有助于厘清影响乡村聚落发展的因素,建立起应对风险扰动的分析框架,引导乡村可持续发展。以蒙洼行蓄洪区为例,综合运用VSD(Vulnerability Scoping Diagram,VSD)框架、显式空间脆弱性模型(Spatially Explicit Resilience-Vulnerability,SERV)模型及贝叶斯网络模型测度区域脆弱性并探究影响脆弱性的主要因素。结果表明:(1)蒙洼地区乡村聚落系统暴露度呈现“两边低、中间高、局部突出”的空间格局特征,镇区周边的乡村聚落敏感性较为突出,同时镇区所在行政村表现出良好的适应力,而乡村聚落系统总体脆弱性较高且高低值差异较大,空间格局呈不均衡分布态势,且结构性差异特征显著。(2)采用定性定量相结合的方法将脆弱区划分为中低脆弱区、敏感—适应型高脆弱区和敏感型高脆弱区三种类型,基于贝叶斯网络分析高脆弱区的影响因素。蒙洼地区乡村聚落以高脆弱区类型居多,其中敏感—适应型高脆弱区主要位于蒙洼地区北部和中部,灾害防控因子对乡村聚落振兴概率的作用最为显著,其建设开发活动受自然环境条件限制较多,因而不宜展开乡村聚落布局,应划为生态保护空间,开展渐进式移民搬迁;而敏感型高脆弱区主要位于蒙洼地区南部河谷地带,建设发展基础相对良好,地形地貌因子对乡村振兴概率的影响最大,为避免该地区乡村衰退的态势加剧,应严格控制人口数量、经济规模和生产方式,尽可能平衡发展与保护之间的矛盾。

Assessing the vulnerability of rural settlement systems from a socio-ecological perspective is helpful to clarify the factors that affect the development of rural settlements,and establish an analytical framework to cope with risk perturbations,and guide the sustainable development of rural communities.Taking the Mengwa flood storage area as an example,this study comprehensively utilized the Vulnerability Scoring Diagram(VSD)framework,the Spatially Explicit Resilience-Vulnerability(SERV)model,and the Bayesian network model to measure regional vulnerability and explore the main factors affecting vulnerability.The results showed that(1)The exposure of rural settlement systems in the Mengwa region exhibited a spatial pattern of"low on both sides,high in the middle,and locally prominent".The sensitivity of rural settlements around the town was relatively prominent,and the administrative villages where the town is located had shown good adaptability.However,the overall vulnerability of the rural settlement system was high and the difference between high and low values was large,the spatial pattern showed an uneven distribution trend,and the structural differences were significant.(2)This study used a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods to categorize the vulnerable zones into three types:low and medium vulnerability zones,sensitive-adaptive high vulnerability zones and sensitive high vulnerability zones,and analyzed the influencing factors of high vulnerability zones based on the Bayesian network.The rural settlements in the Mongwa region are predominantly of the highly vulnerable zone type,the sensitive-adaptive high vulnerability zone was mainly located in the northern and central part of the Mengwa area,where the disaster prevention and control factor had the most significant effect on the probability of rural settlement revitalization,and its construction and development activities were more restricted by the natural environmental conditions,it was not suitable to start the layout of rural settlements,and it should be classified as an ecological protection space for gradual migration and relocation.On the other hand,the sensitive and highly fragile zone was mainly located in the southern valley of Mengwa area,with relatively good construction and development foundation and the greatest influence of topographic and geomorphological factors on the probability of rural revitalization.In order to avoid the aggravation of the decline of the countryside in this area,the number of population,the economic scale and the mode of production should be strictly controlled so as to balance the contradiction between development and protection as far as possible.