我国西部地区能源—经济—生态系统耦合协调水平测度分析

Measurement and Analysis of Energy-economy-ecosystem Coupling Coordination in Western China

我国西部地区能源储备足,经济发展潜力大。但多年来的发展也对环境产生了影响,使其面临巨大考验。本文针对西部地区,以协调发展的视角结合3E系统耦合理论,构建耦合协调模型,测算西部地区2011—2020年间能源、经济与生态环境的耦合协调发展水平。结果显示西部地区能源—经济—环境总耦合协调性较差,西部地区3E系统总体发展较为落后的结论。三大综合指数中环境子系统和经济子系统指数较高,能源子系统指数最低。三大子系统间的耦合协调在较高的水平上相互依赖,呈现出低发展度与低协调度的发展态势。以2013年为转折点,整体综合指数从低度不协调类转为勉强协调类,近十年来能源经济环境子系统综合指数的趋势总体是上升的。最后提出关于能源、经济和环境协调发展的政策建议。

The western region of China has sufficient energy reserves and great potential for economic development.However,the development over the years has also had an impact on the environment,posing great challenges.Focusing on the western region and combining the 3E system coupling theory from the perspective of coordinated development,this paper constructs a coupling coordination model to calculate the coupling and coordinated development of energy,economy,and ecological environment in the western region from 2011 to 2020.The results show(1)the overall coupling coordination of energy-economy-environment in the western region is weak,and the overall development of 3E system in the western region relatively backward;(2)among the three major comprehensive indexes,the environmental subsystem and economic subsystem have relatively high indices,while the energy subsystem has the lowest one;(3)the coupling and coordination among the three subsystems are interdependent at a relatively high level,showing a trend of low level of development and low level of coordination;(4)taking 2013 as the turning point,the overall comprehensive index has shifted from a low degree of coordination to a barely coordinated level,and the overall trend of the comprehensive index of the energy economy and environment subsystem has been on the rise in the past decade.This paper also proposes policy recommendations for the coordinated development of energy,economy,and environment.