基于随机负荷预测的热泵热水系统节能运行策略优化

Optimization of Energy-saving Operation Strategy of Heat Pump Hot-water System Using Stochastic Load Prediction

对热泵系统运行策略的合理优化是实现系统长效运行节能的关键,但策略优化过程易受负荷不确定性的影响,从而导致优化的运行策略节能性不如预期。对此,提出一种基于随机负荷预测的运行策略优化方法,采用多重随机过程采样来模拟负荷预测的不确定性,从而提升优化后策略应用时的稳定性和节能性。以某空气源热泵热水系统为对象,对该优化方法的节能性进行了验证和分析。结果显示,随机负荷下的优化策略能减少峰电的意外使用几率,并增加谷电的利用率。在长期运行模拟中,随机负荷下的优化策略与传统的策略优化方法相比,可额外节省约6.4%的运行电费。

Reasonable optimization of the operation strategy is essential for saving energy in the long-term operation of heat pump systems.However,the strategy optimization process is susceptible to load uncertainty,which causes the optimized strategy to save less energy than expected.To address this issue,a method of operation strategy optimization using stochastic load prediction was developed in this study.The method adopts multiple stochastic process samplings to simulate the uncertainty of the load prediction,thereby improving the robustness and energy savings of the operation strategy.The energy-saving properties of the optimization method were verified and analyzed using an air-source heat pump hot-water system.The results show that the novel optimization strategy can reduce the chance of using peak electricity and increase the utilization of off-peak electricity.In the long-term operation simulation,the novel optimization strategy was found to save 6.4%of energy costs compared with the traditional optimization method.