人工智能、政府政策以及企业劳动力需求

Artificial Intelligence,Government Policies and Enterprise Labor Demand

人工智能导致的就业不确定性引发了社会的广泛担忧,既有研究结论尚未达成一致。我国政府不断出台促进人工智能发展的政策是否会放大这种不确定性?本文从理论上分析人工智能的替代效应和创造效应,并讨论政府人工智能政策介入的影响,利用2009—2020年A股上市公司面板数据及文本分析法探究了我国政府政策对人工智能发展以及劳动力就业市场的影响。研究发现,人工智能整体上促进了企业劳动力需求,并且在人工智能代表性政策《中国制造2025》实施后,不仅企业人工智能水平得到提升,而且企业劳动力需求也显著提高。异质性分析结果显示,在代表性政策影响下,企业劳动力需求出现极化现象。其中,低技术企业劳动力需求降低,而高技术企业劳动力需求增加,并且在高技术企业中,资本密集型企业创造的岗位数量多于技术密集型企业。同时,政府政策弥合了所有制和区域因素带来的企业用工差异,促进了劳动力就业市场的均衡发展。综上,政府在发展人工智能的同时,应关注低技能者的就业和劳动力市场的极化现象,推动人机结合,并提供差异化发展策略。

The employment uncertainty caused by artificial intelligence has triggered widespread concerns in society,and there is still no consensus among existing research findings.Will the continuous introduction of policies by the Chinese government to promote the development of artificial intelligence amplify this uncertainty?This paper theoretically analyzes the substitution effect and creation effect of Al and discusses the impact of government AI policy intervention.Using panel data of A-share listed companies from 2009 to 2020 and employing text analysis methods,this study investigates the impact of government policies on the development of artificial intelligence and the labor market.The study found that AI has promoted the demand for the enterprise labor as a whole,and after the implementation of the representative policy Made in China 2025 in the field of artificial intelligence,not only did the level of artificial intelligence in enterprises improve,but the demand for labor also increased significantly.The heterogeneity analysis shows that under the influence of representative policies,there is a polarization phenomenon in the labor demand of enterprises.Among them,the labor demand of low-tech enterprises decreased,while the labor demand of hightech enterprises increased.Moreover,within the high-tech sector,capital-intensive enterprises created more jobs than technology-intensive enterprises.At the same time,government policies have bridged the employment gaps caused by ownership and regional factors,promoting the balanced development of the labor market.In conclusion,while the government is promoting the development of artificial intelligence,it should also pay attention to the employment of lowskilled workers and the polarization phenomenon in the labor market.It should encourage the integration of humans and machines and provide differentiated development strategies.