中国共同富裕水平的时空演变及其驱动因素

The Spatial-temporal Evolution and Driving Factors of China's Common Prosperity

当前,中国发展不平衡不充分问题仍然突出,为实现“到2035年全体人民共同富裕取得更为明显的实质性进展”的阶段性目标,测度并分析中国共同富裕水平的时空格局、演进规律及驱动因素具有重要的现实意义。参照人类发展指数的设计过程,从“创富”和“享富”两个维度测度中国共同富裕水平,综合运用Dagum基尼系数、Kernel密度估计和莫兰指数对其区域差异和时空演变特征进行刻画,并利用面板数据模型对驱动因素进行检验。研究发现:中国共同富裕水平变化总体上呈现出“W”型特征,且近年来上升态势明显,区域共同富裕水平及其内部差异呈现出明显的分层,区域间差异是全域内部差异的最主要来源;中国共同富裕总体上呈现出微弱的梯度效应和分化态势,绝对差异在减小,但区域内的分化态势明显;共同富裕在地理空间上还表现出比较稳定的“高-高”或“低-低”的集聚特征,且“高-高”型集聚的辐射带动作用强烈、“低-低”型集聚的负向作用在减弱;中国共同富裕水平受到金融效率、创新创业、人力资本、产业结构等因素的影响,各因素的驱动作用具有空间异质性。最后结合经验结果提出针对性建议,为区域协调发展和在高质量发展中扎实推动共同富裕提供政策参考。

At present,China's unbalanced and insufficient development is still prominent.To achieve the phased goal of"more notable and substantial progress will be achieved in achieving common prosperity for everyone by 2035",it is of great practical significance to measure and analyze the spatial-temporal pattern,evolution law and driving factors of common prosperity in China.With reference to the design process of the Human Development Index,this paper measures the level of common prosperity in China from two dimensions of"wealth creation"and"wealth sharing".The regional differences and spatiotemporal patterns of China's common prosperity are characterized by using Dagum Gini coefficient,Kernel density estimation and Moran's I index,and the driving factors are tested by the panel data model.The study finds that the change of China's common prosperity level shows a"W"shape,and there has been an obvious upward trend in recent years;The regional common prosperity level and its internal differences show an obvious stratification,and the inter-regional differences are the main source of the internal differences within the whole region.Overall,common prosperity in China shows a weak gradient effect and differentiation trend,and the absolute difference is decreasing,but the differentiation trend within the region is obvious.In terms of geographical space,common prosperity also shows a relatively stable agglomeration characteristic of"high-high"type or"low-low"type,and the radiation driving effect of"high-high"type agglomeration is strong,while the negative effect of"low-low"type agglomeration is weakening.The common prosperity in China is affected by factors such as financial efficiency,innovation and entrepreneurship,human capital,industrial structure,and the driving effects of these factors are spatial heterogeneity.Finally,based on the empirical results,this paper puts forward targeted suggestions to provide policy references for coordinated regional development and solid promotion of common prosperity through high-quality development.