人口迁移、健康服务业与经济增长——基于调节效应与门槛效应的分析

Population Migration,Healthcare Industry,and Economic Growth:A Study Based on Moderating and Threshold Effects

人口迁入是经济增长的重要推动力,经济增长则是人口迁入的重要吸引力。由此,人口流失地区往往面临人口迁出与经济增长缓慢且互为因果的循环困境。健康服务业作为近年来发展势头迅猛的新兴产业,可以创造大量就业岗位,进而引发劳动力流动、经济增长等一系列连锁反应,缓解人口流失地区的发展压力。基于2009—2019年31个省(自治区、直辖市)的面板数据,运用调节效应与门槛效应模型分析人口迁移、健康服务业、经济增长三者之间的关联机制。结果表明:适度人口迁入能够促进经济增长。健康服务业在人口迁移对经济增长的影响中存在调节效应,其中社会卫生支出的调节效应最显著。健康服务业的调节效应存在门槛效应,当人口迁入未达到门槛值时,健康服务业短期内会弱化人口迁入对经济增长的刺激效应;当人口迁入超过门槛值时,健康服务业会弱化过度迁入带来的不利影响并拉动经济增长;对于人口迁出地区,这种效应则恰好相反。因此,应大力促进健康服务业发展,适度放宽健康服务业的市场准入条件,以“防、治、养”为主线创造更多就业岗位,调整政府卫生支出投入比例,实现健康服务业市场需求和供给的平衡。

Immigration is a key driving force for economic growth,and economic growth is an important at-traction for immigration.Therefore,the areas with population losses often face a cyclical dilemma of emigration and slow economic growth,which are mutually causal.As an emerging industry with rapid development in re-cent years,the healthcare industry can create more job opportunities and trigger a series of chain reactions such as labor flow and economic growth,thus alleviating the development pressure in the areas with population losses.The panel data of 31 provinces(autonomous regions,municipalities directly under the central govern-ment)from 2009 to 2019 and the moderating effect and threshold effect models were employed to analyze the correlations between population migration,healthcare industry,and economic growth.The results showed that moderate immigration promoted economic growth.The healthcare industry moderated the effect of immigration on economic growth,with social health expenditure exerting the most significant moderating effect.The moder-ating effect of the healthcare industry had a threshold.When the immigration did not reach the threshold,the healthcare industry would weaken the stimulating effect of immigration on economic growth in a short term.When the immigration exceeded the threshold,the healthcare industry would weaken the adverse effects of ex-cessive immigration and drive economic growth.In the areas with emigration,this moderating effect was exact-ly the opposite.Therefore,measures should be taken to promote the development of the healthcare industry,such as moderately relaxing the market access conditions for the healthcare industry,creating more job oppor-tunities in terms of prevention,treatment,and healthcare,and adjusting the proportion of government expend-iture on health.These measures will help to achieve the balance between market demand and supply in the healthcare industry.