底线思维、贡献思维与中美经贸谈判战略

Bottom-line Mindset and Contribution Mindset:A Case Analysis of China-US Economic and Trade Negotiation Strategies

中美经济关系在过去五年间出现摩擦和波动,发端于美国单方面对中国销往美国的商品加征关税,引发了中国对应措施后两国进行多轮谈判,近期美国开始单方面考虑取消现存的部分关税。本文基于谈判的概念和分析视角,以小见大地从若干个具体议题来分析中美经贸谈判中所蕴含的底线思维和贡献思维。分析结果表明,中美谈判是互利共赢的,而且中方的行动非常有效。具体地,本文依据谈判领域“利益分解为议题”的分析方法和三类谈判议题的特点,通过案例分析中美谈判中控制阿片类药物和知识产权的有效保护等具体议题,说明中美经济发展关系中存在大量互惠互利的机会,可以令双方都获益。进一步地,以大豆为例,用相对动态的2018年大豆进出口数据来对比相对静态的2017年数据,再次说明中美之间的谈判是互利共赢的,中国采取的行动也符合底线思维和贡献思维。

The China-US economic and trade relations experienced much turbulence in the past five years since the US unilaterally imposed tariffs on goods from China.China had to take measures,leading to multiple rounds of negotiations between the two countries.Recently,the US has begun to unilaterally consider removing some existing tariffs.Based on the concepts and framework of negotiations,this paper examines the bottom-line mindset and contribution mindset inherent in China-US economic and trade negotiations across various specific issues.The results demonstrate that China-US negotiations are mutually beneficial,with China's actions proving highly effective.Specifically,employing the method of decomposing interest into issues along with an exploration of three types of negotiation issues,this paper scrutinizes specific issues such as opioid drug control and effective protection of intellectual property rights involved in the negotiations,and reveals abundant opportunities for mutually-beneficial and win-win cooperation between China and the US in trade and economy.Furthermore,using soybeans as a case study,this paper compares the dynamic importexport data of 2018 with the static data in 2017,underscoring the win-win results of negotiations between the two countries and the bottom-line mindset and contribution mindset of China's actions.