汇率变动、非对称性效应与出口持续时间——基于中国与“一带一路”沿线国家的实证研究

Exchange Rate Fluctuations,Asymmetric Effect and Export Duration:Empirical Evidence From China and BRI Countries

“一带一路”倡议促进了中国与“一带一路”共建国家经济的互惠互利。本文从企业进出国际市场动态决策层面,探究汇率变动对出口持续时间生存变化特点的影响,并考察不同汇率变动方向对中国与沿线国家出口持续时间的非对称性影响。研究发现:汇率变动增加会显著减少中国与沿线国家出口的持续时间;汇率变动对中国与沿线国家出口持续时间具有显著的非对称性影响,即当人民币贬值时,中国与沿线国家出口持续时间增加;中国与不同收入水平沿线国家的出口持续时间受到汇率变动的非对称性影响,中低收入水平沿线国家汇率变动的非对称性效应与中高收入和高收入水平沿线国家相反;不同类型产品中,中国与沿线国家在资本密集型产品和劳动密集型产品的出口持续时间中存在非对称性效应且效应相反,初级产品中非对称性效应并不显著。

The Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)has greatly promoted the economic mutual benefits between China and the countries along the routes.This paper explores the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on the survival characteristics of export duration from the perspective of dynamic decision-making of enterprises entering and withdrawing from the international market and then investigates the asymmetric effects of exchange rate fluctuations on the duration of export between China and the countries along the routes.The results reveal that the increase in exchange rate fluctuations will significantly reduce the export duration and exert a significant asymmetric effect,that is,the export duration between China and the countries along the routes increases when RMB depreciates,and the asymmetric effects vary among countries with different income levels.Specifically,the asymmetric effects in countries with lower-middle income levels are opposite to those with upper-middle and high income levels.In terms of different types of products,there are asymmetric effects on the export duration of capital-intensive and labor-intensive products between China and countries along the routes and the effects are opposite,while the asymmetric effects on that of primary products are not significant.