HBV模型在玛纳斯河流域的适用性

Applicability of HBV Model in the Manas River Basin

新疆天山北坡山区流域水文气象资料稀缺,融雪径流模拟比较困难。为研究HBV模型在新疆天山北坡玛纳斯河流域径流模拟的适用性,通过分析流域积雪覆盖率与径流的相关性,并基于中国地面降水与气温日值0.5°×0.5°格点数据集,经空间插值得到研究区多年平均降水和气温的空间分布,运用HBV模型模拟了玛纳斯河流域2000—2013年日尺度和月尺度径流过程,与SRM的模拟效果进行对比分析。结果表明:①多年月平均积雪覆盖率与多年月平均流量呈负相关,相关系数R^(2)=0.67,流域内积雪融水对径流的补给作用明显;②数据集经空间插值得到研究区多年平均降水和气温的空间分布能基本反映流域的垂直气候差异性,数据集可作为玛纳斯河流域缺乏气象资料的高山区径流模拟的输入数据;③HBV模型与SRM在玛纳斯河流域日尺度和月尺度的径流模拟效果评价等级均为良好,且HBV模型对洪峰流量模拟效果更好,整体的模拟值与实测值偏差更小,HBV模型在玛纳斯河流域具有较好的适用性。

Due to limited hydro-meteorological data available,it is challenging to simulate the snowmelt runoff in mountainous watersheds on the northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang.To investigate the suitability of the Hydrologiska Byrans Vattenbalansavdelning(HBV)model for simulating runoff in the Manas River basin,which is located on the northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang,we examined the relationship between snow cover and runoff in the basin.By conducting spatial interpolation based on a 0.5°×0.5°grid point dataset of daily surface precipitation and air temperature in China,we obtained the spatial distribution of multi-year average precipitation and air temperature in the study area.Subsequently we employed the HBV model to simulate the daily and monthly runoff processes in the Manas River basin from 2000 to 2013.To assess the model’s performance,we compared the HBV simulation results with those of Snowmelt Runoff Model(SRM).The findings reveal the following:1)The multi-year monthly mean snow cover exhibits a negative correlation(R^(2)=0.67)with the multi-year monthly mean flow,indicating a significant contribution of snowmelt water to basin runoff.2)The spatial distribution of multi-year average precipitation and air temperature,derived from spatial interpolation,effectively captures the vertical climatic variability in the basin.These data serve as input for runoff simulation in the Manas River basin’s high mountainous areas where meteorological information is scarce.3)Both the HBV model and the SRM demonstrate good performance in simulating daily and monthly runoff in the Manas River basin.However,the HBV model proves more effective in simulating peak flood flow,as it exhibits overall closer agreement with measured values.Thus,the HBV model shows better applicability for the Manas River basin.