多维多时间-空间尺度水利工程安全风险评价系统及其应用

Multi-dimensional Multi-spatiotemporal Safety Risk Assessment System for Water Conservancy Projects and Its Application

为解决风险矩阵分析法(LS法)和作业条件危险分析法(LEC法)在水利工程安全风险等级评价过程中评价指标量化依据不明确、判定标准不统一、成果运用可指导性差等缺点,基于风险矩阵原理,建立了多维多时间-空间尺度水利工程安全风险评价系统。研究结果表明:①通过风险评价要素管控措施状态M、暴露于危害的频繁程度或危害出现的频次E和运行周期内工作性态C,及其不同组合,可对水利工程全部类型危险源事故发生可能性L进行细化评价;②风险评价要素M的判定标准与水利工程管理考核标准相统一;③通过风险评价要素C,简要评价实体危险源不同时空工作性态演化与环境改变相互作用;④通过增加上游水位H和运行时段F风险评价要素,并判断危险源与下游防洪是否直接相关,事故造成的伤亡人数和经济损失是否可量化统计,可充分考虑事故后果统计时空分布不均衡的特点,并对水利工程安全风险进行实时动态评估。该研究成果对水利行业安全生产双重预防机制建设具有一定参考价值。

Risk matrix analysis(LS)and operating condition risk analysis(LEC)have some limitations in rating the safety risks of water conservancy project,including unclear quantitative evaluation indicators,inconsistent criteria,and limited guidance for result application.In view of this,we developed a multidimensional and multi-spatiotemporal scale safety risk assessment system based on the risk matrix principle.Our research demonstrated the following outcomes:1)the likelihood(L)of all types of hazard accidents in water conservancy projects can be assessed in detail by considering various combinations of control measures(M),frequency of hazard exposure(E),and working behavior(C)in the operation cycle.2)The assessment criterion of M should be consistent with the standard of water conservancy project management.3)The interaction between physical hazards evolution and environmental change can be assessed through the risk assessment factor C.4)In consideration of the unbalanced spatiotemporal distribution of accident consequences,the safety risks of water conservancy projects can be assessed dynamically by incorporating the upstream water level(H)and operation period(F)and identifying whether hazard sources are directly related to downstream flood control or the casualties and economic losses caused by accidents can be quantified.This dynamic and real-time evaluation approach for water conservancy project safety risks offers a valuable reference for constructing a double prevention mechanism for safe production in the industry.