物流无人机运输市场分担率预测模型研究

Research on Prediction Model of Sharing Rate of Logistics UAV in Transportation Market

针对物流无人机运输市场分担率预测问题,考虑安全性、快速性、经济性、便捷性、准时性、服务质量等运输方式选择影响因素及消费者个人属性特征,在效用函数中增加随机因子建立随机Logit模型,利用计算机仿真和随机抽样法分析物流无人机运输市场分担率。研究表明,文中提出的模型预测物流无人机市场占比为39%,便捷性对效用函数的贡献率最高,运输时间和费用是影响消费者选择运输方式的最重要因素。

Considering influence factors of choosing modes of transportation,such as safety,rapidity,economy,convenience,punctuality and service quality,and individual attributes of consumers,a random Logit model is established by adding random factors to the utility function to predict the sharing rate of logistics unmanned aerial vehicle(UAV)in transportation market.Then the rate is analyzed by computer simulation and random sampling method.The research shows that the market share of logistics UAV is 39%which is predicted by the model proposed in this paper,the convenience contributes the most to the utility function,and transportation time and cost are the most important influence factors of consumers choosing modes of transportation.