基于SWOT-PEST-AHP的南宁轨道交通产业链发展研究

Analysis on the Development of Nanning Rail Transit Industry Chain in the Form of SWOT-PEST-AHP

本文基于轨道交通产业链结构,利用SWOT-PEST-AHP模型,定性定量相结合地分析南宁轨道交通产业链发展。首先,从政治(P)、经济(E)、社会(S)、技术(T)四个角度分析南宁发展轨道交通产业链的优势(S)、劣势(W)、机遇(O)和风险(T),形成SWOT-PEST矩阵;其次,利用层次分析法(AHP),定量计算出SWOT-PEST矩阵中不同发展要素权重,结合估计强度,得到各发展要素的综合力度,并得出总的综合力度排序为总劣势、总优势、总机遇和总威胁;再次,通过战略四边形及战略向量分析,得出南宁轨道交通产业链发展应考虑以WO战略为主,战略类型为争取型战略区中调整型,同时应采取开拓型战略。最终,基于分析结果,针对性提出南宁轨道交通产业链发展策略。

Based on the composition of rail transit industry chain,this paper used SWOT-PEST-AHP model to analyze the development of Nanning rail transit industry chain qualitatively and quantitatively.Firstly,the strengths(S),weaknesses(W),opportunities(O)and threats(T)of Nanning rail transit industry chain were analyzed from the political(P),economic(E),social(S)and technological(T)angles,and the SWOT-PEST matrix was formed.Secondly,the weights of different development factors of the SWOT-PEST matrix were calculated by the analytic hierarchy process(AHP).Combined with the estimated intensity,the comprehensive strength of each element was obtained,and the total comprehensive strength was ranked as weakness,strength,opportunity and threat.Thirdly,through strategic quadrilateral and strategic vector analysis,it is concluded that the development of Nanning rail transit industry chain should be based on WO strategy,and the strategic type belongs to the adjustment type in the strategic area.At the same time,a pioneering strategy should be adopted.Finally,based on the analysis results,the targeted development strategy of Nanning rail transit industry chain was put forward.